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The 25-basis-point increase marks the first interest rate hike since July 2023 and comes after the Fed left rates unchanged at its first five meetings this year.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank's panel responsible for monetary policy moves, noted that \"Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.\n\"Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2% goal.\"\nThe FOMC's rate hike announcement was accompanied by a summary of economic projections made by policymakers. The median member of the panel projected one more 25-basis-point rate hike this year on the so-called \"dot plot\" as the FOMC is set to meet again in October and December, when further moves could occur. The median projection also expects the federal funds rate to remain around that level next year.\nFed Chair Kevin Warsh said the FOMC raised interest rates in support of its dual mandate to ensure price stability and promote full employment in the economy, saying that the panel \"will deliver price stability.\"\n\"Our decision comes at a time when the American economy appears to be strengthening,\" Warsh said, noting labor market data, private sector earnings and capital investment as indicators of that strength. \"I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.\"\nThe Fed chair noted that the unemployment rate remain", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/0a7aadc20ca952820c3c8389de8d04ead414788e9477e0eb450ced797ab9fbbb.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "135b5dbc99e27cfe590cf88c038682b471ffb649d46e02716742326e6dbd265e", "url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-september-2026", "title": "September Fed Meeting: Updates and Commentary", "publisher": "Kiplinger", "published_at": "2026-09-14", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:09.526115Z", "excerpt": "The September Fed meeting kicked off Tuesday and concluded on Wednesday with the central bank's latest policy decision.\nWith the labor market steady and energy prices keeping inflation elevated, the Federal Reserve voted to raise the federal funds rate for the first time since 2023.\nWall Street also tuned into the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and \"dot plot\" to see where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects interest rates and inflation to be over the next year or so, and Chair Warsh's post-meeting press conference.\nThe Kiplinger team reported live on the September Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the latest updates.\nHow Does the Federal Reserve Work? | 3 Ways Kevin Warsh Will Change the Fed | How the New Fed Chair Could Impact What You Pay in Taxes This Year\nStocks trade lower to start Fed week; oil prices spike\nThe stock market is in negative territory Monday as the tech sector sinks on worries that artificial intelligence (AI) technology has advanced too far, too fast. At last check, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down 0.8% at 26,129, the broader S&P 500 is off 0.6% at 7,607, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is 0.4% lower at 52,369.\nTech stocks that have a hand in AI are some of the biggest decliners, including chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -5.7%), Intel (INTC, -5.4%) and Nvidia (NVDA, -5.7%), and AI infrastructure providers Nebius Group (NBIS, -5.2%) and Vertiv Holdings (VRT, -7.8%).\nThis deepens losses in the main indexes since the start of the month, driven in part by rising energy prices from the ongoing war in Iran. \"The backdrop has become increasingly uncomfortable for equities with oil surging again, bond yields remaining elevated and markets anticipating potential rate hikes from both the Fed and Bank of Japan this week,\" says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. \"Oil is once again the biggest geopolitical story.\"\nT", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/135b5dbc99e27cfe590cf88c038682b471ffb649d46e02716742326e6dbd265e.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "18f07b7006eaf5b81e51eff61f0e6065eeb3c317be6b2f34ea030f0fd6a4b932", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm", "title": "Implementation Note issued September 16, 2026", "publisher": "federalreserve.gov", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:06.534648Z", "excerpt": "Press Release\nSeptember 16, 2026\nImplementation Note issued September 16, 2026\nDecisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation\nThe Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on September 16, 2026:\n- \n\tThe Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90 percent, effective September 17, 2026.\n- As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:\n\t\"Effective September 17, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to: \n - Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.\n - Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations at a rate of 4.0 percent.\n - Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.75 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.\n - When appropriate, increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves.\n - Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities. Reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills.\"\n- \n\tIn a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 4.0 percent, effective September 17, 2026. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate su", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/18f07b7006eaf5b81e51eff61f0e6065eeb3c317be6b2f34ea030f0fd6a4b932.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "1cff42827cb9500e0f16093d26f6c13e21a4102f8428370f55ce26c424f6d8ce", "url": "https://govtschemes.org/fed-interest-rate-september-2026-hike-outlook/", "title": "Fed Interest Rate Decision: September 2026 Hike Chances Rise", "publisher": "GovtSchemes", "published_at": "2026-09-04", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:06.535320Z", "excerpt": "Fed Interest Rate September 2026 : The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, 2026, but the decision came with an unusual twist that has markets now bracing for a possible Fed interest rate September 2026 hike. Three regional Federal Reserve presidents, Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas, dissented from the hold and pushed for an immediate quarter-point increase, marking the first time since September 2016 that three Federal Open Market Committee members have dissented with a unified hawkish view.\nFed Chair Kevin Warsh described the internal debate as a “good family fight” during his post-meeting press conference, acknowledging the split while declining to signal where the committee is headed next. Bond markets reacted immediately, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to nearly 4.68% and the 30-year yield surging past 5.19%, its highest level in nearly two decades, as investors priced in a real chance of tighter policy ahead. Major Wall Street institutions, including J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, have since shifted their outlook to now expect a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting, a notable change from a prior base case of no rate changes at all in 2026. This article breaks down exactly what happened at the July meeting, why the dissents matter, and what to watch for heading into the September decision. We’ll be updating this article monthly as new inflation data and Fed commentary shape the outlook.\nWhat the Fed Actually Decided on July 29, 2026\nThe Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate in its current target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, where it has sat since being lowered through a series of rate cuts in the second half of 2025. The committee’s official statement was largely unchanged from the previous month, noting that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, productivity growth and capital investment remai", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/1cff42827cb9500e0f16093d26f6c13e21a4102f8428370f55ce26c424f6d8ce.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "1d41ae571cfc7b9881cdec35e46f025285d0e9420263c7667999661190a617b6", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm", "title": "Meeting calendars and information", "publisher": "federalreserve.gov", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:08.060605Z", "excerpt": "Meeting calendars, statements, and minutes (2021-2027)\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the year.\nFOIA\nThe FOMC makes an annual report pursuant to the Freedom of Information Act. The FOMC FOIA Service Center provides information about the status of FOIA requests and the FOIA process.\n2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021\nFuture Year: 2027 \n \n \n \n \n January\n \n 27-28\n \n \n \n \n Minutes:\n \n PDF\n | \nHTML\n (Released February 18, 2026)\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n March\n \n 17-18*\n \n \n \n \n Minutes:\n \n PDF\n | \nHTML\n (Released April 08, 2026)\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n April\n \n 28-29\n \n \n \n \n Minutes:\n \n PDF\n | \nHTML\n (Released May 20, 2026)\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n June\n \n 16-17*\n \n \n \n \n ", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/1d41ae571cfc7b9881cdec35e46f025285d0e9420263c7667999661190a617b6.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "98f092df923fec6a32552c68631cf0886fc2c39a7657d6732e03c94f9d6aaa5a", "url": "https://www.etnownews.com/markets/us-fed-rate-decision-fomc-meeting-september-2026-liveblog-156169878", "title": "US Fed Meeting LIVE: Federal Reserve hikes interest rates by 25 bps in first hike since 2023 - Top Highlights", "publisher": "ET Now", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:10.436248Z", "excerpt": "US Fed Meeting LIVE: Fed’s first rate hike in three years?\nPosted By:- Shahnaz Mahrose\nAll eyes will be on markets today as the US Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day meeting and convey its policy decision later this evening. After more than three years without a rate increase, traders are almost certain the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points, pushing the benchmark range to 3.75%-4%. The odds of a cut were high two weeks ago, but with the prevalent inflation numbers, climbing Treasury yields and rising oil prices, the probability of a hike has shot up to over 92%.", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/98f092df923fec6a32552c68631cf0886fc2c39a7657d6732e03c94f9d6aaa5a.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "9d65445b879c777deefcf7b481d978c0140ada8973c7dd8b99f29be8217e980c", "url": "https://www.raisin.com/en-us/news/fed-rate-decision-policy-breakdown-september-2026/", "title": "Fed Rate Decision September 2026: Benchmark Hiked to 3.75%-4.00%", "publisher": "Raisin", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:09.544575Z", "excerpt": "On September 16, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously (12–0) to increase the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. The policy shift comes as recent inflation data remained elevated above the central bank’s 2% long-term target. Commercial banks and online financial institutions are expected to adjust retail deposit APYs across high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs) and short-term certificates of deposit (CDs) in response.\nThe target range for the federal funds rate moves up to 3.75%–4.00%.\nVariable high-yield savings account rates typically track benchmark increases upward within 1 to 2 weeks as banks compete to attract deposits.\nToday's rate decision sets a fresh floor for short- and mid-term CD rates. Locking in fixed yields allows savers to capture competitive APYs before future policy adjustments.\nIn an official statement released at 2:00 p.m. ET, the Federal Open Market Committee noted that domestic economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace because people and businesses are still spending steadily.. However, persistent pressure in energy and consumer price measures prompted the 12–0 vote to adjust policy rates higher.\nThe Committee reiterated its commitment to returning inflation to its 2% objective, signaling that monetary policy decisions will remain data-dependent entering the final quarter of the year.\nWhen the Federal Reserve raises its rates, banks usually follow suit and pay you more for your savings. But this doesn't happen instantly; each bank gets to decide how quickly they pass those higher rates on to you.\nHigh-yield savings accounts (variable APYs): Because HYSAs feature variable interest rates, top-tier online banks typically adjust their advertised yields upward following a central bank rate increase. Savers with idle checking or traditional savings cash earning the national average (0.38%, as of August 2026) stand to gain by moving funds into competitive liquid accounts.\nCe", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/9d65445b879c777deefcf7b481d978c0140ada8973c7dd8b99f29be8217e980c.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "9f41675e62a2168849bdcaa5d94cac78c00d2eb929f7023bd99f41159170b62a", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762", "title": "Fed Decision in September?", "publisher": "Polymarket", "published_at": "2026-05-13", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:10.017783Z", "excerpt": "The Federal Reserve's unanimous 25 basis point rate increase at the September 2026 FOMC meeting reflects entrenched inflation above the 2% target, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures revised higher to 3.7%. A surge in energy prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict further elevated near-term price pressures, prompting Chair Kevin Warsh and the committee to prioritize a timely return to target over external calls for easing. Updated dot plot projections reinforced this path, with most participants signaling at least one additional hike by year-end. Trader consensus reached 100% on the 25 basis point move once incoming data and official communications aligned, leaving limited room for alternatives. Only an abrupt reversal in final pre-meeting indicators or an unforeseen policy pivot could have altered the outcome at that stage.\nExperimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated\nFOMC announces 25 basis point rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%\n25 bps increase surges to 88%34%\nFollowing the September 15-16 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the first increase since 2023, in response to persistent inflation and strong labor market data.\nFederal Reserve holds closed Board meeting to review advance and discount rates\nYes jumps to 42%11%\nOn September 9, the Federal Reserve Board held a closed meeting to consider advance and discount rates, a routine but important step ahead of the FOMC meeting, signaling ongoing policy deliberations.", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/9f41675e62a2168849bdcaa5d94cac78c00d2eb929f7023bd99f41159170b62a.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "ae6d5c4a532a077b8f631402787ac47b53e846ed48fc9d88f58ee4131f577f0a", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html", "title": "Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year", "publisher": "CNBC", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:06.533522Z", "excerpt": "The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its first interest rate hike in more than three years and indicated another is to come, as part of an effort aimed at combating inflation brought on by spiraling oil prices and other factors.\nIn a move that markets widely anticipated, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to increase its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points. The move brought the overnight funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%.\n\"Inflation remains elevated,\" the committee said in its brief post-meeting statement. \"Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.\"\nDuring a news conference, Chairman Kevin Warsh said inflation has been \"too high ... for too long.\"\n\"We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed,\" he said. \"Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied.\"\nWarsh further explained that recent economic reports showed the economy, including the labor market, was strong. However, inflation remained above the central bank's target, and added that tension in the Middle East also contributed to the decision.\n\"All three of those things lend themselves to a firm unanimous decision today,\" he said.\nDespite a raft of conflicting recent statements from policymakers, markets had priced in a better than 90% chance that the FOMC would approve the increase, though there was chatter about the possibility of multiple dissents.\nPersistently high inflation readings coupled with statements from Warsh a few weeks ago had convinced Wall Street that the Fed would OK its first rate increase since July 2023.\nUpdated projections the committee released Wednesday showed that a strong majority of officials think another hike is possible later this year.\nThe dot-plot grid of individual officials' expectations indicated that 16 of the 18 participants – Warsh has chos", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/ae6d5c4a532a077b8f631402787ac47b53e846ed48fc9d88f58ee4131f577f0a.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "ae7553396e7ed52940c2aa8b3f35f21012d3ff72aaf617755e6d3c46f814797c", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm", "title": "FOMC Minutes, July 28–29, 2026", "publisher": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System", "published_at": "2026-08-19", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:10.422175Z", "excerpt": "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee\nJuly 28–29, 2026\nA joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, at 9:00 a.m.1\nDevelopments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations\nThe manager began by noting that, against a backdrop of solid economic data, developments over the intermeeting period were influenced by the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices ended the period higher following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Across asset classes, inflation compensation moved little in response to higher oil prices, nominal rates rose largely on expectations of higher policy rates, equities were somewhat lower, and the dollar edged up modestly.\nNear-term inflation compensation declined notably after the June FOMC meeting and moved up only marginally thereafter despite the sharp increase in oil prices. Market outreach and written responses to the Open Market Desk Survey of Market Expectations (Desk survey) indicated that this decline after the June FOMC meeting was attributable in part to investors' perceptions of the Committee's strong resolve to deliver price stability, as reflected in the June FOMC statement and press conference. Longer-term inflation compensation remained stable and consistent with the Committee's 2 percent longer-run inflation objective.\nNominal Treasury yields rose 25 to 30 basis points, driven by corresponding increases in real interest rates. Market pricing and outreach indicated that, while investors expected no action at the July FOMC meeting as a base case, the market priced in about a one-in-three chance of an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. At longer horizons, the market was fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by the September meeting and another one by the end of the first quarter of next year. The ", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/ae7553396e7ed52940c2aa8b3f35f21012d3ff72aaf617755e6d3c46f814797c.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "b49de54c92e4ac50be66129ef468ca955acc4be01467c8b1f1b8361633942738", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "title": "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement", "publisher": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:57:20.173796Z", "excerpt": "September 16, 2026\nFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement\nFor release at 2:00 p.m. EDT\nThe Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:\nThe Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.\nEconomic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.\nInflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.\nFor media inquiries, please email [email protected] or call 202-452-2955.", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/b49de54c92e4ac50be66129ef468ca955acc4be01467c8b1f1b8361633942738.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "df77246b2e4f1024689dceca0f19e94935538fbf882d44b2605d3a7a0b35798b", "url": "https://investinglive.com/central-banks/the-full-statement-from-the-federal-reserve-board-for-september-2026/", "title": "The full statement from the Federal Reserve Board for September 2026", "publisher": "Investinglive", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:07.777543Z", "excerpt": "The full statement from the Federal Reserve Board for September 2026\n- The Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:\nThe Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage pointto 3-3/4to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.\nEconomic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments,domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.\nInflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/df77246b2e4f1024689dceca0f19e94935538fbf882d44b2605d3a7a0b35798b.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "e63f7721c0217ae6ceaeaab8092304a6123f3bf72fc20cfbbbf0cef3d7dbb922", "url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate", "title": "United States Fed Funds Interest Rate", "publisher": "TRADING ECONOMICS", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:08.252421Z", "excerpt": "The Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026 as expected, marking the first rate hike since 2023. Policymakers noted that inflation remains elevated, and the move aims to support a more timely return to the 2% target. Updated projections showed that 16 of 18 officials see the possibility of at least one more 25bps rate hike later this year with four penciling in two additional rate increases. Chair Warsh again declined to submit his forecasts. Meanwhile, the GDP is seen expanding at a slightly faster pace in 2026 (2.3% vs 2.2% in the June projection) and 2027 (2.4% vs 2.3%). PCE inflation is seen higher this year (3.7% vs 3.6%) but the forecast for 2027 was kept at 2.3%. Core inflation is also seen up in 2026 (3.4% vs 3.3%) but the forecast was left at 2.5% for 2027. The unemployment rate is now projected at 4.1% in both 2026 and 2027, down from the previous forecast of 4.3% for both years. source: Federal Reserve\nThe benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.39 percent from 1971 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Fed Funds Interest Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2026. \n \n The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 4.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 4.25 per", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/e63f7721c0217ae6ceaeaab8092304a6123f3bf72fc20cfbbbf0cef3d7dbb922.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "f68e0b9e9e3b5af42f6650abbee5abda2a285fa23a07cb9a84006d91f66170a0", "url": "https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-rate-decision-september-2026/", "title": "Fed Rate Decision September 2026: Hike, Hold, or Cut? What to Know", "publisher": "Emergency Fund Calculator", "published_at": "2026-08-23", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:08.203730Z", "excerpt": "The Fed rate decision September 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most genuinely uncertain in years — and that uncertainty is itself the headline. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set to announce its next move on September 16, market-implied odds have swung from a near-lock on a hold to a real possibility of a hike and back again, all within the past three weeks.\nKey Takeaways\n- The Fed’s next rate decision lands on September 16, 2026, following a hold at 3.50%–3.75% at every meeting so far this year.\n- Market-implied odds for the September 2026 Fed rate decision have swung sharply: from roughly 62% hike odds in early August, down to about 30–40% after a weak jobs report, per CME FedWatch data from mid-to-late August.\n- J.P. Morgan Wealth Management now expects a 25-basis-point hike, while Goldman Sachs calls a September hike “very unlikely” and expects the Fed to hold through the rest of 2026 — a genuine split among major forecasters.\n- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28, just 19 days before the decision, but has consistently avoided giving forward guidance since taking office.\n- The wildcard driving inflation risk is the ongoing Iran conflict, which has pushed oil prices higher and complicated the inflation outlook independent of anything the Fed itself controls.\nTable of Contents\n\nWhat’s Driving the September 2026 Fed Rate Decision Debate\nHeading into the Fed rate decision for September 2026, the FOMC is in an unusually divided position. At the July 29 meeting, the committee voted 9–3 to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% — but those three dissents, from the presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas regional Fed banks, all pushed for a hike, not a cut. That’s a meaningfully hawkish signal for a Fed that spent most of 2025 focused on when to lower rates.\nTwo forces are pulling in opposite directions ahead of the September decision. On one side, inflation tied to the ongoing confli", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/f68e0b9e9e3b5af42f6650abbee5abda2a285fa23a07cb9a84006d91f66170a0.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "fbdd9a7f1871a9d3171693376fca642da342dcf36488d5e586db0e3de6f75a81", "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-meeting-updates--live/91746863007/", "title": "Fed raises rates for first time since 2023. What it means for you", "publisher": "USA TODAY", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T05:58:09.571595Z", "excerpt": "Fed raises rates for first time since 2023. What it means for you\nWASHINGTON — Federal Reserve policymakers responded to stubborn inflation by opting to raise their benchmark for short-term interest rates for the first time in three years on Sept. 16, just days after President Donald Trump said the United States should have “the lowest interest rates in the world.”\nThe vote was unanimous among the Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members.\nThe federal funds rate now stands at a range of 3.75% to 4% — a quarter percentage point higher than before. The Fed typically raises rates to tame inflation by making borrowing more expensive, which can lead to less demand and eventually lower prices. Raising the target range also means consumers will likely see higher interest rates on things like credit cards and personal loans.\nAlthough a hike was not guaranteed, many forecasters were expecting one with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, oil prices above $100 per barrel, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s past commitment to deliver price stability. Still, the Fed cannot control every factor behind the United States’ stubborn inflation. It has limited influence over tariffs, the Iran war, and the AI buildout that are helping drive prices higher.\n\"Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2% goal,\" policymakers said in a statement released alongside the decision. \"The Committee will deliver price stability.\"\nThe rate decision was released alongside the committee's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. While Warsh, like in June, did not participate, a dot plot inside that report revealed where the rest of his colleagues believe the federal funds rate is headed. Of them, two see the Fed holding the range steady, 12 see room for one more quarter-point increase, and four see room for two quarter-point increases or one half-point hike before the end of 2026.\n\"They also removed the rate cut previously projected fo", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/fbdd9a7f1871a9d3171693376fca642da342dcf36488d5e586db0e3de6f75a81.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "00cdbb46cb1ea25331210ef57c5926b86d9539271881424c404da4061dbd75a7", "url": "https://rsmus.com/insights/economics/another-fed-rate-cut-january.html", "title": "The outlook for another Fed rate cut in January", "publisher": "rsmus.com", "published_at": "2026-01-12", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T06:05:18.190725Z", "excerpt": "The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% in December, but signaled no imminent further reductions.\nThe growth outlook for 2026 improved, raising the question of whether December’s rate cut was necessary.\nThe Fed’s interest rate forecast shows only one cut likely in 2026 amid policy disagreements.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee delivered its third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut in December, but central bank officials played down the likelihood of another reduction at its next meeting on Jan. 29.\nThe federal funds rate now sits in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. At the same meeting, the Federal Reserve reduced the interest rate on excess reserves to 3.65% and the discount rate to 3.75%.\nEven with the reductions, the tenor of the FOMC’s statement and remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the December meeting substantially raised the bar for a rate cut in January.\nWhat’s more, the cumulative data included in the Summary of Economic Projections strongly implies a lack of consensus on moving the policy rate down to 3%, which is the Fed’s estimate of the terminal rate.\nThe strong upgrade to the growth outlook for 2026 and near-full employment beg the question: Why was the rate cut needed at all?\nIn addition, the FOMC’s subsequent revision of its summary language suggests a lack of conviction on the need for any cuts in the near term: “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”\nPowell said in his remarks afterward: “The fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves.”\nPut another way, the Fed’s policy is not currently restrictive and additional cuts would require a deceleration in growth below the long-run 1.8% potential.\nThat remark implies confidence in getting inflati", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/00cdbb46cb1ea25331210ef57c5926b86d9539271881424c404da4061dbd75a7.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "2a74b476d5aace97cc60e95b77a7b90ece57a4d138a68f404b00beca32b6cae8", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm", "title": "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement", "publisher": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System", "published_at": "2026-07-29", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T06:05:14.210203Z", "excerpt": "July 29, 2026\nFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement\nFor release at 2:00 p.m. EDT\nThe Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:\nThe Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.\nEconomic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.\nInflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.\nVoting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.\nFor media inquiries, please email [email protected] or call 202-452-2955.", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/2a74b476d5aace97cc60e95b77a7b90ece57a4d138a68f404b00beca32b6cae8.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "31b0d54f6463d85228b8d94694a5a1abe78ccfc83ba214800b0406dffaeaf7e1", "url": "https://think.ing.com/articles/another-fed-cut-but-there-is-growing-dissent/", "title": "Another Fed cut, but there is growing dissent", "publisher": "ING THINK", "published_at": "2025-12-10", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T06:05:17.498647Z", "excerpt": "The Fed cut rates 25bp. Two members voted for no change, but individual forecasts suggested six FOMC members felt that a cut wasn’t “appropriate”. Current Fed members suggest just one further cut is their 2026 central projection, but with changes coming and the jobs market cooling the risks are skewed towards them cutting by more\nFed cuts with forecast pointing to a hawkish tilt within the Fed\nThe Federal Reserve has cut the Fed funds target rate range 25bp to 3.5-3.75% as widely expected. This is the third consecutive cut and brings the cumulative easing to 175bp since September last year. The decision wasn’t unanimous, with Jeffrey Schmid again voting for a no-change outcome, this time joined by Austan Goolsbee. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Stephen Miran again voted for a 50bp cut. In terms of the dot plot of individual forecasts, the median prediction is just one further rate cut in 2026, just as was the case in the previous forecasts from September. The thrust of the accompanying statement is unchanged from October.\nLooking at the forecasts, there is clearly a hawkish tilt. While two members voted for no change today, six members felt the \"appropriate\" rate should be 3.875% – not the 3.625% central range we are now at. Moreover, they have revised up their fourth quarter 2026 year-on-year GDP growth forecast to 2.3% from 1.8%, which Chair Powell attributed to a rebound following the end of the government shutdown and ongoing rapid data centre spending. This is above the 2% Bloomberg consensus forecast of the private forecasters (ourselves included). Core inflation projections have been revised down 0.1 percentage point for 2025 and 2026, but they continue to forecast one further 25bp cut in 2027 with the longer run rate remaining at 3% for Fed funds.\nThe Fed is changing in 2026\nBut does this matter, given that we know the Federal Reserve's structure is changing? In our view, not really. From May, the Fed will have a new Chair. Kevin Hassett, the current D", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/31b0d54f6463d85228b8d94694a5a1abe78ccfc83ba214800b0406dffaeaf7e1.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "ac12d38f2d9b44fe6b42aaf6327088c164ba3598311a3a50d2cf4a526e8e1861", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm", "title": "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement", "publisher": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System", "published_at": "2025-12-10", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T06:05:14.734905Z", "excerpt": "December 10, 2025\nFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement\nFor release at 2:00 p.m. EST\nAvailable indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.\nThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.\nIn support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.\nIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.\nThe Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing bas", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/ac12d38f2d9b44fe6b42aaf6327088c164ba3598311a3a50d2cf4a526e8e1861.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] }, { "id": "c3a50271de5b4adb4a360726aeb0f7a24074783dd69892d73ceb2f56a5d80bbf", "url": "https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot", "title": "September 2026 Fed Dot Plot Sees Low 4% Fed Funds in 2027", "publisher": "Bondsavvy", "published_at": "2026-09-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T06:05:14.358253Z", "excerpt": "On September 16, the US Federal Reserve published the Fed dot plot that projected a target range of the fed funds rate to be 4.00% to 4.25% at yearend 2026 and 2027. With today's quarter-point rate hike, the September Fed dot plot implies one-half point of total 2026 fed funds rate increases.\n \n How times have changed.\n \n In the March Fed dot plot, the FOMC meeting participants projected one-half point of rate cuts across 2026 and 2027.\n \n This fixed income blog post discusses the September 2026 Fed dot plot, its impact on bond and money market yields, and the Fed's updated economic projections.\n \n We show in Figure 1a below how money market yields move in lockstep with the fed funds rate. With today's quarter-point rate hike, we expect the Vanguard VMFXX 7 day yield of 3.63% to increase to around 3.88% over the next several weeks.\n \n That said, there remains a significant opportunity cost of holding money market funds. As of 3:58pm EDT today, two-year AAA-rated Apple bonds had YTMs of 4.71%, as shown on Fidelity.com and other online bond investing platforms. Twenty-year Apple bonds had YTMs exceeding 6%.\n \n The 2- and 20-year US Treasury yields closed today at 4.74% and 5.39%, respectively. Therefore, short-term Apple bonds had a negative credit spread (not uncommon for short-dated investment grade bonds), while the credit spread for the 20-year Apple bond was approximately 60 basis points.\n \n Bondsavvy's active bond investment strategy seeks to achieve corporate bond returns that exceed a bond's purchase date YTM.\n \n \n \n \n \n The September 2026 Fed Dot Plot\nThe Fed dot plot shows the projected yearend target range for the fed funds rate from each of the FOMC meeting\n participants. Each dot represents the opinion of one FOMC participant. There are typically 19 participants (the 7 Fed g", "full_text_path": "data/runs/fed-hike-2026-09/20260917T063301Z/text/c3a50271de5b4adb4a360726aeb0f7a24074783dd69892d73ceb2f56a5d80bbf.txt", "leaf_ids": [ "root" ], "found_by": [ "ddg" ] } ], "judgments": [ { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "0a7aadc20ca952820c3c8389de8d04ead414788e9477e0eb450ced797ab9fbbb", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.9, "quality_rationale": "This is a news report directly citing official Federal Reserve primary documents (FOMC announcement, dot plot projections, and Fed Chair statements) with specific numerical data and direct quotes from authoritative sources. Fox Business is a reputable financial news outlet with editorial standards, and the reporting directly conveys official records and primary source material rather than interpretation or analysis.", "directness": 1.0, "direction": 1, "strength": 0.95, "basis": "finding", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": false, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.9,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"This is a news report directly citing official Federal Reserve primary documents (FOMC announcement, dot plot projections, and Fed Chair statements) with specific numerical data and direct quotes from authoritative sources. 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Fox Business is a reputable financial news outlet with editorial standards, and the reporting directly conveys official records and primary source material rather than interpretation or analysis.", "directness": 1.0, "direction": -1, "strength": 0.95, "basis": "finding", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": true, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.9,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"This is a news report directly citing official Federal Reserve primary documents (FOMC announcement, dot plot projections, and Fed Chair statements) with specific numerical data and direct quotes from authoritative sources. Fox Business is a reputable financial news outlet with editorial standards, and the reporting directly conveys official records and primary source material rather than interpretation or analysis.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"directness\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"directness\\\": 1.0,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports that the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate at its meeting on September 16, 2026, with specific details about the vote, the rate increase, and the FOMC's decision.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"direction\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"direction\\\": -1,\\n \\\"strength\\\": 0.95,\\n \\\"basis\\\": \\\"finding\\\",\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports that the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate at its September 16, 2026 meeting, which directly contradicts the sub-claim that it is not the case that the FOMC raised rates at this meeting.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"roots\": \"{\\\"roots\\\": [{\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"federal reserve\\\"}]}\"}", "usage": { "prompt_tokens": 885, "completion_tokens": 103, "total_tokens": 988, "reasoning_tokens": 0 }, "cost_usd": 0.0014, "params_hash": "7cd003b73f851c20", "created_at": "2026-09-17T06:34:28.607430Z" }, { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "135b5dbc99e27cfe590cf88c038682b471ffb649d46e02716742326e6dbd265e", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.5, "quality_rationale": "Kiplinger is ordinary financial journalism with editorial standards and a reputable publisher track record, but this piece relies on relaying market data, official Fed announcements, and third-party analyst commentary rather than conducting original investigation or providing primary documents. It reports on events and includes named sources (e.g., Daniela Hathorn from Capital.com) but does not constitute primary documentation of Fed decisions.", "directness": 0.7, "direction": 1, "strength": 0.85, "basis": "assertion", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve fomc september 2026" }, { "type": "primary_source", "id": "kevin warsh press conference september 2026" }, { "type": "primary_source", "id": "daniela hathorn capitalcom" }, { "type": "primary_source", "id": "kiplinger" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": false, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.5,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"Kiplinger is ordinary financial journalism with editorial standards and a reputable publisher track record, but this piece relies on relaying market data, official Fed announcements, and third-party analyst commentary rather than conducting original investigation or providing primary documents. It reports on events and includes named sources (e.g., Daniela Hathorn from Capital.com) but does not constitute primary documentation of Fed decisions.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"directness\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"directness\\\": 0.7,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports that the FOMC met in September 2026 and voted to raise the federal funds rate, but does not explicitly confirm the specific dates (15-16 September) or that the rate increase occurred at that particular meeting rather than being a forward-looking decision.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"direction\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"direction\\\": 1,\\n \\\"strength\\\": 0.85,\\n \\\"basis\\\": \\\"assertion\\\",\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document explicitly states the Federal Reserve 'voted to raise the federal funds rate' at the September meeting that 'kicked off Tuesday and concluded on Wednesday,' which directly corresponds to the 15-16 September 2026 dates, though this is presented as a post-meeting report rather than direct observation of the decision itself.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"roots\": \"{\\\"roots\\\": [{\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"federal reserve fomc september 2026\\\"}, {\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"kevin warsh press conference september 2026\\\"}, {\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"daniela hathorn capitalcom\\\"}, {\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"kiplinger\\\"}]}\"}", "usage": { "prompt_tokens": 3187, "completion_tokens": 1940, "total_tokens": 5127, "reasoning_tokens": 1751 }, "cost_usd": 0.011431, "params_hash": "7cd003b73f851c20", "created_at": "2026-09-17T06:34:28.607773Z" }, { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "18f07b7006eaf5b81e51eff61f0e6065eeb3c317be6b2f34ea030f0fd6a4b932", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.9, "quality_rationale": "This is a primary document from the Federal Reserve's official website containing the actual policy decisions and implementation directives issued by the FOMC and Board of Governors. It represents the authoritative record of Fed actions on the specified date, though it is an implementation note rather than the complete policy statement, preventing a perfect 1.0 rating.", "directness": 1.0, "direction": 1, "strength": 0.95, "basis": "finding", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": false, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.9,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"This is a primary document from the Federal Reserve's official website containing the actual policy decisions and implementation directives issued by the FOMC and Board of Governors. It represents the authoritative record of Fed actions on the specified date, though it is an implementation note rather than the complete policy statement, preventing a perfect 1.0 rating.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"directness\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"directness\\\": 1.0,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports the FOMC's decision on September 16, 2026 to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, exactly matching the sub-claim's proposition.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"direction\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"direction\\\": 1,\\n \\\"strength\\\": 0.95,\\n \\\"basis\\\": \\\"finding\\\",\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports that the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent effective September 17, 2026, which constitutes raising the target range as part of their September 16, 2026 policy decision.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"roots\": \"{\\\"roots\\\": [{\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"federalreserve\\\"}]}\"}", "usage": { "prompt_tokens": 3017, "completion_tokens": 559, "total_tokens": 3576, "reasoning_tokens": 240 }, "cost_usd": 0.00575888, "params_hash": "7cd003b73f851c20", "created_at": "2026-09-17T06:34:28.607950Z" }, { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "1cff42827cb9500e0f16093d26f6c13e21a4102f8428370f55ce26c424f6d8ce", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.7, "quality_rationale": "The source cites specific named officials (Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, regional Fed presidents), official records (FOMC vote counts, rate decisions, meeting dates), and market data (Treasury yields, Wall Street institution forecasts), demonstrating reliance on primary sources and official records. However, GovtSchemes is not an established major news outlet with recognized editorial standards, and the excerpt appears incomplete, limiting full assessment of sourcing rigor and editorial quality.", "directness": 0.4, "direction": 0, "strength": 0.0, "basis": "assertion", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve fomc july 2026" }, { "type": "primary_source", "id": "kevin warsh press conference september 2026" }, { "type": "author_group", "id": "jp morgan wealth management" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": false, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.7,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The source cites specific named officials (Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, regional Fed presidents), official records (FOMC vote counts, rate decisions, meeting dates), and market data (Treasury yields, Wall Street institution forecasts), demonstrating reliance on primary sources and official records. However, GovtSchemes is not an established major news outlet with recognized editorial standards, and the excerpt appears incomplete, limiting full assessment of sourcing rigor and editorial quality.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"directness\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"directness\\\": 0.4,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document discusses the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting and market expectations for a September 2026 rate decision, but does not report on what actually occurred at the September 15-16 meeting itself.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"direction\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"direction\\\": 0,\\n \\\"strength\\\": 0,\\n \\\"basis\\\": \\\"assertion\\\",\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document discusses expectations and market pricing for a possible September 2026 hike but contains no information about what the FOMC actually decided at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting; it only covers the July 29, 2026 meeting and forward-looking speculation.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"roots\": \"{\\\"roots\\\": [{\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"federal reserve fomc july 2026\\\"}, {\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"federal reserve chair kevin warsh press conference\\\"}, {\\\"type\\\": \\\"author_group\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"jp morgan wealth management\\\"}]}\"}", "usage": { "prompt_tokens": 3058, "completion_tokens": 373, "total_tokens": 3431, "reasoning_tokens": 0 }, "cost_usd": 0.0049716, "params_hash": "7cd003b73f851c20", "created_at": "2026-09-17T06:34:28.608135Z" }, { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "1d41ae571cfc7b9881cdec35e46f025285d0e9420263c7667999661190a617b6", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.9, "quality_rationale": "This is an official primary document from the Federal Reserve's authoritative website (federalreserve.gov) providing the institutional record of FOMC meeting schedules and official minutes. As a government agency's own documentation of its proceedings, it represents the definitive primary source for Federal Reserve decision-making dates and official records, though it does not contain the substantive policy decisions themselves.", "directness": 0.4, "direction": 0, "strength": 0.0, "basis": "finding", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": false, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.9,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"This is an official primary document from the Federal Reserve's authoritative website (federalreserve.gov) providing the institutional record of FOMC meeting schedules and official minutes. As a government agency's own documentation of its proceedings, it represents the definitive primary source for Federal Reserve decision-making dates and official records, though it does not contain the substantive policy decisions themselves.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"directness\": \"```json\\n{\\\"directness\\\": 0.4, \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document confirms that a September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting occurred and provides access to related materials, but does not directly report on the specific policy decision regarding the federal funds rate target range.\\\"}\\n```\", \"direction\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"direction\\\": 0,\\n \\\"strength\\\": 0,\\n \\\"basis\\\": \\\"finding\\\",\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document lists FOMC meeting dates and provides links to minutes and statements, but the excerpt cuts off before showing the September 2026 meeting entry and contains no information about policy decisions or rate changes at any meeting.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"roots\": \"{\\\"roots\\\":[{\\\"type\\\":\\\"primary_source\\\",\\\"id\\\":\\\"federal reserve\\\"}]}\"}", "usage": { "prompt_tokens": 2925, "completion_tokens": 744, "total_tokens": 3669, "reasoning_tokens": 464 }, "cost_usd": 0.005644314, "params_hash": "7cd003b73f851c20", "created_at": "2026-09-17T06:34:28.608271Z" }, { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "98f092df923fec6a32552c68631cf0886fc2c39a7657d6732e03c94f9d6aaa5a", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.5, "quality_rationale": "This is ordinary journalism reporting on anticipated Fed decisions and market expectations based on economic indicators and trader sentiment, with a named author but no direct primary sources quoted or official Fed documentation cited. It relays market analysis and probability assessments rather than providing direct access to official records or primary sourcing.", "directness": 1.0, "direction": 1, "strength": 0.7, "basis": "assertion", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "et now" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": false, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.5,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"This is ordinary journalism reporting on anticipated Fed decisions and market expectations based on economic indicators and trader sentiment, with a named author but no direct primary sources quoted or official Fed documentation cited. It relays market analysis and probability assessments rather than providing direct access to official records or primary sourcing.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"directness\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"directness\\\": 1.0,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports on the Federal Reserve's September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting decision, specifically stating the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, which is the exact proposition being tested.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"direction\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"direction\\\": 1,\\n \\\"strength\\\": 0.7,\\n \\\"basis\\\": \\\"assertion\\\",\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document asserts that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its two-day meeting concluding on the date of publication (2026-09-16), which aligns with the September 15-16 meeting referenced in the sub-claim, though the document presents this as a forecast/expectation rather than a confirmed decision.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"roots\": \"{\\n \\\"roots\\\": [\\n {\\n \\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\",\\n \\\"id\\\": \\\"et now\\\"\\n }\\n ]\\n}\"}", "usage": { "prompt_tokens": 1890, "completion_tokens": 308, "total_tokens": 2198, "reasoning_tokens": 0 }, "cost_usd": 0.0032386, "params_hash": "7cd003b73f851c20", "created_at": "2026-09-17T06:34:28.608424Z" }, { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "9d65445b879c777deefcf7b481d978c0140ada8973c7dd8b99f29be8217e980c", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.7, "quality_rationale": "The source cites official FOMC statements and specific policy decisions with named institutions and precise data (vote count, rate figures, timestamps), demonstrating reliance on primary records. However, it is a financial services website (Raisin) with commercial interest in deposit products, and the excerpt mixes factual reporting with product-promotion content, reducing its status from a pure primary document to reputable reporting with official sourcing.", "directness": 1.0, "direction": 1, "strength": 0.95, "basis": "finding", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "fomc september 2026 statement" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": false, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.7,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The source cites official FOMC statements and specific policy decisions with named institutions and precise data (vote count, rate figures, timestamps), demonstrating reliance on primary records. However, it is a financial services website (Raisin) with commercial interest in deposit products, and the excerpt mixes factual reporting with product-promotion content, reducing its status from a pure primary document to reputable reporting with official sourcing.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"directness\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"directness\\\": 1.0,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports that the FOMC voted on September 16, 2026 to increase the target range for the federal funds rate, which exactly matches the sub-claim being tested.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"direction\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"direction\\\": 1,\\n \\\"strength\\\": 0.95,\\n \\\"basis\\\": \\\"finding\\\",\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports that on September 16, 2026, the FOMC voted unanimously to increase the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, which directly confirms the sub-claim about a rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"roots\": \"{\\\"roots\\\": [{\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"fomc september 2026 statement\\\"}]}\"}", "usage": { "prompt_tokens": 3043, "completion_tokens": 325, "total_tokens": 3368, "reasoning_tokens": 0 }, "cost_usd": 0.0048138, "params_hash": "7cd003b73f851c20", "created_at": "2026-09-17T06:34:28.608588Z" }, { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "9f41675e62a2168849bdcaa5d94cac78c00d2eb929f7023bd99f41159170b62a", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.5, "quality_rationale": "Polymarket is a prediction market platform that aggregates trader consensus rather than conducting original reporting or analysis. While it references official FOMC actions and data points, it functions as secondary aggregation of market sentiment and publicly available information, lacking primary sourcing, peer review, or independent verification of its characterizations.", "directness": 1.0, "direction": 1, "strength": 0.9, "basis": "assertion", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve fomc september 2026" }, { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve board september 9 2026" }, { "type": "dataset", "id": "polymarket market data" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": false, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.5,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"Polymarket is a prediction market platform that aggregates trader consensus rather than conducting original reporting or analysis. While it references official FOMC actions and data points, it functions as secondary aggregation of market sentiment and publicly available information, lacking primary sourcing, peer review, or independent verification of its characterizations.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"directness\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"directness\\\": 1.0,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports that 'Following the September 15-16 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points,' which exactly matches the sub-claim about the FOMC raising rates at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"direction\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"direction\\\": 1,\\n \\\"strength\\\": 0.9,\\n \\\"basis\\\": \\\"assertion\\\",\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document explicitly states 'Following the September 15-16 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points,' directly supporting the sub-claim that the FOMC raised rates at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"roots\": \"{\\\"roots\\\": [{\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"federal reserve fomc september 2026\\\"}, {\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"federal reserve board september 9 2026\\\"}, {\\\"type\\\": \\\"dataset\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"polymarket market data\\\"}]}\"}", "usage": { "prompt_tokens": 2648, "completion_tokens": 355, "total_tokens": 3003, "reasoning_tokens": 0 }, "cost_usd": 0.00410632, "params_hash": "7cd003b73f851c20", "created_at": "2026-09-17T06:34:28.608717Z" }, { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "9f41675e62a2168849bdcaa5d94cac78c00d2eb929f7023bd99f41159170b62a", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.5, "quality_rationale": "Polymarket is a prediction market platform that aggregates trader consensus rather than conducting original reporting or analysis. While it references official FOMC actions and data points, it functions as secondary aggregation of market sentiment and publicly available information, lacking primary sourcing, peer review, or independent verification of its characterizations.", "directness": 1.0, "direction": -1, "strength": 0.95, "basis": "finding", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve fomc september 2026" }, { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve board september 9 2026" }, { "type": "dataset", "id": "polymarket market data" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": true, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.5,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"Polymarket is a prediction market platform that aggregates trader consensus rather than conducting original reporting or analysis. While it references official FOMC actions and data points, it functions as secondary aggregation of market sentiment and publicly available information, lacking primary sourcing, peer review, or independent verification of its characterizations.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"directness\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"directness\\\": 1.0,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports that 'Following the September 15-16 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points,' which exactly matches the sub-claim about the FOMC raising rates at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"direction\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"direction\\\": -1,\\n \\\"strength\\\": 0.95,\\n \\\"basis\\\": \\\"finding\\\",\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"The document directly reports that 'Following the September 15-16 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points,' which directly contradicts the sub-claim that the FOMC did not raise rates at that meeting.\\\"\\n}\\n```\", \"roots\": \"{\\\"roots\\\": [{\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"federal reserve fomc september 2026\\\"}, {\\\"type\\\": \\\"primary_source\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"federal reserve board september 9 2026\\\"}, {\\\"type\\\": \\\"dataset\\\", \\\"id\\\": \\\"polymarket market data\\\"}]}\"}", "usage": { "prompt_tokens": 804, "completion_tokens": 100, "total_tokens": 904, "reasoning_tokens": 0 }, "cost_usd": 0.001304, "params_hash": "7cd003b73f851c20", "created_at": "2026-09-17T06:34:28.608717Z" }, { "model_id": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5", "prompt_version": "quality_v1+directness_v1+direction_v2+roots_v1", "item_id": "ae6d5c4a532a077b8f631402787ac47b53e846ed48fc9d88f58ee4131f577f0a", "leaf_id": "root", "quality": 0.7, "quality_rationale": "CNBC is a reputable financial news organization with editorial standards that reports directly on official Federal Reserve actions and statements. The article cites primary sources (FOMC vote results, official committee statement, Chairman Warsh's direct quotes from news conference) and provides specific, verifiable details (12-0 vote, 25 basis points, target range 3.75%-4%), though it is secondary reporting rather than a primary document.", "directness": 1.0, "direction": 1, "strength": 0.95, "basis": "finding", "roots": [ { "type": "primary_source", "id": "federal reserve" } ], "roots_model_id": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813", "flipped": false, "raw_response": "{\"quality\": \"```json\\n{\\n \\\"quality\\\": 0.7,\\n \\\"rationale\\\": \\\"CNBC is a reputable financial news organization with editorial standards that reports directly on official Federal Reserve actions and statements. 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