Claims › iraq-wmd-2003
Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction in March 2003, and that justified the invasion.
Submitted as: “Saddam had WMDs in 2003 so the war was justified”. The wording above is what the engine scored; the difference is shown so it can be judged.
Refuted p = 0.027
Consensus of 5 models: median log-odds per sub-claim (-3.59), re-aggregated through the tree. Weakest-leaf evidence mass 4.36. Mean pairwise disagreement 2.07 log-odds; the models do not agree on the label.
Verdict per model
Every model scored the same evidence pool with the same rubric. Differences below are differences of judgment, not of retrieval. "Cold" is the model's own probability with no evidence shown, asked once; on a historical claim that is recall, not a forecast.
| Model | Verdict | p | log-odds | cold p | rubric − cold (log-odds) | polarity flags | live cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 |
Refuted | 0.111 | -2.08 | 0.05 | +0.87 | 3 / 10 | $0.00 |
openai/gpt-5.4-mini |
Leans refuted | 0.179 | -1.52 | 0.08 | +0.92 | 2 / 10 | $0.00 |
google/gemini-3.5-flash-lite |
Refuted | 0.003 | -5.67 | 0.00 | -1.08 | 0 / 10 | $0.00 |
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash |
Refuted | 0.026 | -3.61 | 0.01 | +0.99 | 0 / 10 | $0.00 |
x-ai/grok-4.3 |
Refuted | 0.025 | -3.65 | 0.05 | -0.71 | 0 / 10 | $0.00 |
claude-haiku-4.5, cold rationale: Extensive post-invasion inspections and investigations (ISG, Duelfer Report) found no active WMD stockpiles or programs in Iraq as of March 2003. Iraq had destroyed its programs in the 1990s; while some ambiguity remained about past activities, no militarily significant quantities were discovered.
gpt-5.4-mini, cold rationale: Iraq did not have confirmed militarily significant chemical stockpiles, an active biological weapons program, or a reconstituted nuclear weapons program in March 2003 according to the postwar findings. The claim as a whole is therefore very unlikely to be true, even though Iraq had earlier WMD history and ambiguous concealment behavior.
gemini-3.5-flash-lite, cold rationale: Extensive post-war investigations by the Iraq Survey Group concluded that Saddam Hussein had dismantled Iraq's active WMD programs years before the 2003 invasion, rendering the justifications false.
deepseek-v4.1-flash, cold rationale: The 2004 Iraq Survey Group and later reviews found no militarily significant chemical or biological stockpiles and no reconstituted nuclear program in March 2003; Iraq's WMD capability had largely degraded after 1991.
grok-4.3, cold rationale: Post-invasion inspections including the Iraq Survey Group found no militarily significant chemical or biological stockpiles and no reconstituted nuclear program by March 2003; the justification clause therefore fails on factual grounds.
Re-scored at strictness 0.2
The same cached judgments through the same arithmetic with the public dial moved: independence discount 0.62, mass floor 0.70, quality exponent 0.70. Zero model calls. The verdict of record is the one above.
Consensus: Refuted p = 0.010
claude-haiku-4.5: Refuted 0.062 · gpt-5.4-mini: Refuted 0.113 · gemini-3.5-flash-lite: Refuted 0.002 · deepseek-v4.1-flash: Refuted 0.010 · grok-4.3: Refuted 0.010
Decomposition
The claim as a tree of checkable parts. AND nodes multiply their children's probabilities, OR nodes combine them noisy-or. Parts tagged as values are excluded from scoring and shown as excluded.
| Node | Text | consensus p | claude-haiku-4.5 | gpt-5.4-mini | gemini-3.5-flash-lite | deepseek-v4.1-flash | grok-4.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
root and |
Iraq possessed WMD in March 2003 and this justified the invasion | 0.027 | |||||
wmd or |
Iraq held usable WMD stockpiles or ran an active WMD production program in March 2003 | 0.027 | |||||
chem leaf |
Iraq held militarily significant stockpiles of chemical weapons in March 2003 | 0.010 | 0.081 1s | 0.060 1s | 0.000 1s | 0.010 1s | 0.010 1s |
bio leaf |
Iraq held biological weapons stockpiles or ran an active biological weapons production program in March 2003 | 0.007 | 0.012 | 0.092 | 0.000 | 0.007 1s | 0.006 1s |
nuke leaf |
Iraq had reconstituted its nuclear weapons program by March 2003 | 0.010 | 0.021 1s | 0.039 | 0.003 | 0.009 | 0.010 1s |
justified leaf · values |
The invasion was justified Excluded: Whether WMD possession would justify military action is a normative question. Excluded from scoring and shown as excluded. |
– |
Flags: 1s the pool did not test the other side (directional mass below the floor); ins evidence mass below the floor.
What moved it
Per model, the five documents with the largest push on the log-odds, so a reader can say "a real record, the move makes sense" or "three copies of the same story" from the table alone. Push is the item's log-likelihood ratio after the contested shrink; the listed items' share of the total push is stated per sub-claim.
claude-haiku-4.5 · chem: total push -2.43, listed -0.87, rubric − cold -0.70 · bio: total push -4.40, listed -2.23, rubric − cold -3.01 · nuke: total push -3.84, listed -2.34, rubric − cold +0.05
| Sub-claim | push | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | rank in cluster | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
nuke | -1.35 | -1 | 0.95 | finding | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1 | globalsecurity.org: Iraq Survey Group Final Report |
bio | -1.12 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | Chemical & Engineering News: Assessing Iraq's Weapons |
bio | -1.12 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq: Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
nuke | -0.99 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | armscontrol.org: The Cost of Ignoring UN Inspectors: An Unnecessary War with Iraq |
chem | -0.87 | -1 | 0.80 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | armscontrol.org: Iraq Weapons Hunt Ends; Other Investigations Continue |
gpt-5.4-mini · chem: total push -2.76, listed -0.77, rubric − cold -0.77 · bio: total push -2.29, listed -2.42, rubric − cold +0.15 · nuke: total push -3.21, listed -1.75, rubric − cold +0.27
| Sub-claim | push | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | rank in cluster | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
nuke | -1.75 | -1 | 1.00 | finding | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1 | globalsecurity.org: Iraq Survey Group Final Report |
bio | -0.85 | -1 | 0.95 | finding | 0.70 | 0.70 | 1 | Chemical & Engineering News: Assessing Iraq's Weapons |
bio | -0.80 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 0.70 | 1 | armscontrol.org: Disarming Saddam-A Chronology of Iraq and UN Weapons Inspections From 2002-2003 |
bio | -0.77 | -1 | 0.86 | finding | 0.70 | 0.70 | 1 | FactCheck.org: No WMDs in Iraq - FactCheck.org |
chem | -0.77 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 0.70 | 1 | FactCheck.org: No WMDs in Iraq - FactCheck.org |
gemini-3.5-flash-lite · chem: total push -8.18, listed -2.99, rubric − cold -3.59 · bio: total push -7.64, listed -1.60, rubric − cold -3.05 · nuke: total push -5.92, listed -3.04, rubric − cold -1.33
| Sub-claim | push | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | rank in cluster | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
chem | -1.68 | -1 | 1.00 | finding | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1 | SIPRI: Twenty years ago in Iraq, ignoring the expert weapons inspectors proved to be a fatal mist |
bio | -1.60 | -1 | 1.00 | finding | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1 | SIPRI: Twenty years ago in Iraq, ignoring the expert weapons inspectors proved to be a fatal mist |
nuke | -1.52 | -1 | 1.00 | finding | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series: Colin Powell: U.N. Speech "Was a Great Intelligence Failure" | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official |
nuke | -1.52 | -1 | 1.00 | finding | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1 | globalsecurity.org: Iraq Survey Group Final Report |
chem | -1.31 | -1 | 1.00 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | armscontrol.org: Iraq Weapons Hunt Ends; Other Investigations Continue |
deepseek-v4.1-flash · chem: total push -4.60, listed -1.05, rubric − cold -0.00 · bio: total push -4.92, listed -2.15, rubric − cold -0.33 · nuke: total push -4.65, listed -2.44, rubric − cold -0.06
| Sub-claim | push | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | rank in cluster | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
nuke | -1.51 | -1 | 1.00 | finding | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1 | globalsecurity.org: Iraq Survey Group Final Report |
bio | -1.10 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | NBC News: CIA’s final report: No WMD found in Iraq |
chem | -1.05 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | armscontrol.org: Iraq Weapons Hunt Ends; Other Investigations Continue |
bio | -1.04 | -1 | 0.85 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | Chemical & Engineering News: Assessing Iraq's Weapons |
nuke | -0.94 | -1 | 0.80 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | armscontrol.org: The Cost of Ignoring UN Inspectors: An Unnecessary War with Iraq |
grok-4.3 · chem: total push -4.62, listed -1.18, rubric − cold -2.18 · bio: total push -5.13, listed -2.28, rubric − cold -2.19 · nuke: total push -4.61, listed -2.46, rubric − cold -0.72
| Sub-claim | push | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | rank in cluster | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
nuke | -1.38 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1 | globalsecurity.org: Iraq Survey Group Final Report |
chem | -1.18 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | FactCheck.org: No WMDs in Iraq - FactCheck.org |
bio | -1.14 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | Chemical & Engineering News: Assessing Iraq's Weapons |
bio | -1.14 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | FactCheck.org: No WMDs in Iraq - FactCheck.org |
nuke | -1.07 | -1 | 0.90 | finding | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1 | armscontrol.org: The Cost of Ignoring UN Inspectors: An Unnecessary War with Iraq |
Rubric versus the model's cold opinion
Each model was also asked, with no evidence and no search, for its probability that the claim is true. The difference between that and the rubric's number is what the structure changed. On a claim resolved before a model's training cutoff the cold number is recall, so this is not a forecasting score.
| Model | cold p | rubric p | rubric verdict | Δ log-odds | chem: cold → rubric | bio: cold → rubric | nuke: cold → rubric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-haiku-4.5 | 0.05 | 0.111 | Refuted | +0.87 | 0.15 → 0.08 | 0.20 → 0.01 | 0.02 → 0.02 |
| gpt-5.4-mini | 0.08 | 0.179 | Leans refuted | +0.92 | 0.12 → 0.06 | 0.08 → 0.09 | 0.03 → 0.04 |
| gemini-3.5-flash-lite | 0.00 | 0.003 | Refuted | +0.00 | 0.00 → 0.00 | 0.00 → 0.00 | 0.00 → 0.00 |
| deepseek-v4.1-flash | 0.01 | 0.026 | Refuted | +0.99 | 0.01 → 0.01 | 0.01 → 0.01 | 0.01 → 0.01 |
| grok-4.3 | 0.05 | 0.025 | Refuted | -0.71 | 0.08 → 0.01 | 0.05 → 0.01 | 0.02 → 0.01 |
| median | 0.05 | 0.027 | Refuted | -0.65 |
Divergence between models
Same pool, same rubric, different judgment. Spread is max − min log-odds across models on a sub-claim.
| Sub-claim | claude-haiku-4.5 | gpt-5.4-mini | gemini-3.5-flash-lite | deepseek-v4.1-flash | grok-4.3 | median | spread | mean pairwise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
chem | -2.43 | -2.76 | -8.18 | -4.60 | -4.62 | -4.60 | 5.75 | 2.67 |
bio | -4.40 | -2.29 | -7.64 | -4.92 | -5.13 | -4.92 | 5.35 | 2.29 |
nuke | -3.84 | -3.21 | -5.92 | -4.65 | -4.61 | -4.61 | 2.72 | 1.25 |
Documents the models rated most differently for source quality
| Source | claude-haiku-4.5 | gpt-5.4-mini | gemini-3.5-flash-lite | deepseek-v4.1-flash | grok-4.3 | spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov): Library | 0.00 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| CNN.com - Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation: Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Grokipedia: WMD conjecture after the 2003 invasion of Iraq — Grokipedia | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq: Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky: SCHAKOWSKY: BUSH ADMINISTRATIONS MISSTATEMENT OF THE DAY IRAQ AND WEAPONS OF MAS | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Powell Proved Deception, But Not Imminent Threat | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Opendemocracy: The Iraq weapons report: a review | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| globalsecurity.org: Iraq Survey Group Final Report | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.20 |
Documents the models read in different directions
Value is direction × strength for the named sub-claim.
| Source | Sub-claim | claude-haiku-4.5 | gpt-5.4-mini | gemini-3.5-flash-lite | deepseek-v4.1-flash | grok-4.3 | spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wikimedia Foundation, Inc.: Iraqi biological weapons program - Wikipedia | bio | -0.70 | +0.70 | -1.00 | -0.50 | -0.90 | 1.70 |
| CNN.com - Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation: Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation | nuke | -0.70 | +0.90 | +0.90 | +0.60 | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| The Famous Pictures Collection: Iraqi Mobile Production Facilities | bio | -0.70 | +0.65 | +0.80 | -0.50 | -0.60 | 1.50 |
| Wikimedia Foundation, Inc.: Colin Powell's presentation to the United Nations Security Council - Wikipedia | nuke | +0.00 | -0.60 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.00 | 1.40 |
| armscontrol.org: Chemical Munition Found in Iraq | chem | +0.00 | +0.45 | -0.80 | +0.00 | +0.00 | 1.25 |
| armscontrol.org: Iraq Weapons Hunt Ends; Other Investigations Continue | bio | -0.70 | +0.00 | -1.00 | -0.90 | -0.70 | 1.00 |
| armscontrol.org: Iraq Weapons Hunt Ends; Other Investigations Continue | chem | -0.80 | +0.00 | -1.00 | -0.90 | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky: SCHAKOWSKY: BUSH ADMINISTRATIONS MISSTATEMENT OF THE DAY IRAQ AND WEAPONS OF MAS | bio | -0.70 | +0.00 | -0.90 | -0.80 | -0.70 | 0.90 |
Evidence
One shared pool, retrieved once. Each row is a document; the cluster root is what the retrieval model judged it rests on. The first document in a cluster counts in full and each further one is discounted, so a hundred articles citing one study do not outweigh one independent record. Per-model columns give the signed push (llr) that model's judgments produced; the full per-model tables with quality, directness, weight and independence are below each sub-claim.
chem Iraq held militarily significant stockpiles of chemical weapons in March 2003
25 documents. One-sided pool for claude-haiku-4.5, gpt-5.4-mini, gemini-3.5-flash-lite, deepseek-v4.1-flash, grok-4.3.
| # | Source | Cluster root | basis | median llr | claude-haiku-4.5 | gpt-5.4-mini | gemini-3.5-flash-lite | deepseek-v4.1-flash | grok-4.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | armscontrol.org 2005-03-01 Iraq Weapons Hunt Ends; Other Investigations Continue |
study: duelfer report 2004 | finding | -1.12 | -1.12 | +0.00 | -1.40 | -1.26 | -0.39 |
| 2 | armscontrol.org 2025-04-09 Disarming Saddam-A Chronology of Iraq and UN Weapons Inspections From 2002-2003 |
primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | finding | -0.78 | -0.69 | -0.78 | -1.26 | -1.12 | -0.69 |
| 3 | FactCheck.org 2008-02-19 No WMDs in Iraq - FactCheck.org |
author_group: iraq survey group | finding | -0.63 | -0.11 ⚠ | -0.88 | -0.17 | -0.63 | -1.26 |
| 4 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2003-10-26 Iraq Survey Group - Wikipedia |
study: duelfer report 2004 | finding | -0.50 | -0.24 | -0.60 | -0.50 | -0.45 | -0.80 |
| 5 | globalsecurity.org 1998-02-13 Iraqi Chemical Weapons Program |
study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | assertion | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.13 | +0.45 | +0.45 | +0.39 |
| 6 | Kay Revives Fracas Over U.S. Intelligence on Iraq 2004-03-01 Kay Revives Fracas Over U.S. Intelligence on Iraq |
primary_source: cia | assertion | -0.32 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -1.26 | -0.32 | -0.32 |
| 7 | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq 2004-10-07 Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
author_group: iraq survey group | finding | -0.23 | -0.06 | -0.23 | -0.90 | -0.35 | -0.23 |
| 8 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2002-12-06 Iraq and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia |
primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | assertion | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.11 | -0.90 | -0.32 | -0.13 |
| 9 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2006-06-11 WMD conjecture after the 2003 invasion of Iraq - Wikipedia |
author_group: iraq survey group | finding | -0.12 | -0.90 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.12 | -0.45 |
| 10 | SIPRI 2023-03-09 Twenty years ago in Iraq, ignoring the expert weapons inspectors proved to be a fatal mistake |
author_group: iraq survey group | finding | -0.03 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -1.80 | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| 11 | Grokipedia 2025-12-24 WMD conjecture after the 2003 invasion of Iraq — Grokipedia |
author_group: iraq survey group | finding | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 | -0.02 | -0.00 | -0.07 |
| 12 | Opendemocracy 2003-10-08 The Iraq weapons report: a review |
author_group: iraq survey group | finding | -0.01 | -0.00 | +0.00 | -0.28 | -1.12 | -0.01 |
| 13 | globalsecurity.org 2026-01-01 Iraq Survey Group Final Report |
author_group: iraq survey group | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | -0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 14 | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov 2005-03-31 Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction |
study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 15 | globalsecurity.org 2026-01-01 Iraq Survey Group Final Report |
author_group: iraq survey group | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | -0.00 | +0.00 |
| 16 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu 1997-10-08 Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction |
primary_source: national security directive 54 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 17 | Congressional Research Service 2003-03-13 Iraq: U.N. Inspections for Weapons of Mass Destruction |
study: unmovic | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | -0.63 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 18 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2004-07-29 Senate Report on Iraqi WMD Intelligence - Wikipedia |
primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 19 | armscontrol.org 2004-06-01 Chemical Munition Found in Iraq |
author_group: iraq survey group | mixed | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | -0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 20 | armscontrol.org 2003-07-01 Inspectors' Accomplishments in Iraq, 2002-2003 |
study: unmovic | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 21 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2004-01-07 WMD in Iraq |
primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | -0.20 | -0.96 |
| 22 | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) 2000-01-01 Library |
primary_source: cia | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 23 | un.org 2003-232.pdf |
study: unmovic | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 24 | un.org 2003-03-07 Security Council 7 March 2003 |
study: unmovic | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 25 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2002-10-04 United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission - Wikipedia |
primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
claude-haiku-4.5 on chem: p 0.081, log-odds -2.43, mass 3.57 (for 0.28 / against 2.26 / mixed 0.73), contested shrink ×0.78, 25 items in 12 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.146, leave-one-backend-out 0.024 · one-sided
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| chem:c1 | author_group: iraq survey group | 9 | 0.81 | -1.08 |
| chem:c2 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.88 | -1.36 |
| chem:c3 | study: unmovic | 4 | 0.42 | +0.00 |
| chem:c4 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.49 | -0.69 |
| chem:c5 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.32 | +0.39 |
| chem:c6 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.20 |
| chem:c7 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| chem:c8 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.14 | -0.20 |
| chem:c9 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| chem:c10 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| chem:c11 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.00 |
| chem:c12 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | chem:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 1.000 | -0.90 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 2 | chem:c1 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.343 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 3 | chem:c1 | 3 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 0.250 | -0.11 | ⚠ polarity | FactCheck.org |
| 4 | chem:c1 | 4 | -1 | 0.90 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 0.125 | -0.06 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 5 | chem:c1 | 5 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.062 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 6 | chem:c1 | 6 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.031 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 7 | chem:c1 | 7 | -1 | 0.80 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.245 | 0.016 | -0.01 | unchecked | Grokipedia |
| 8 | chem:c1 | 8 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.008 | -0.00 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 9 | chem:c1 | 9 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 0.004 | -0.00 | unchecked | Opendemocracy |
| 10 | chem:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.12 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 11 | chem:c2 | 2 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.350 | 0.500 | -0.24 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 12 | chem:c3 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 13 | chem:c3 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 14 | chem:c3 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 15 | chem:c3 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 16 | chem:c4 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.69 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 17 | chem:c5 | 1 | +1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 1.000 | +0.39 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 18 | chem:c5 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.500 | +0.00 | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov | |
| 19 | chem:c6 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | -0.20 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 20 | chem:c7 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 21 | chem:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | -0.20 | unchecked | Kay Revives Fracas Over U.S. Intelligence on Iraq |
| 22 | chem:c9 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 23 | chem:c10 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 24 | chem:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.20 | 0.056 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | nsarchive2.gwu.edu |
| 25 | chem:c12 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
gpt-5.4-mini on chem: p 0.060, log-odds -2.76, mass 2.89 (for 0.08 / against 1.95 / mixed 0.31), contested shrink ×0.87, 25 items in 12 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.164, leave-one-backend-out 0.098 · one-sided
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| chem:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 9 | 0.91 | -1.61 |
| chem:c2 | primary_source: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.45 | -0.60 |
| chem:c3 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.49 | -0.78 |
| chem:c4 | primary_source: unmovic | 4 | 0.25 | +0.00 |
| chem:c5 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.21 | +0.13 |
| chem:c6 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.20 | +0.00 |
| chem:c7 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.14 | -0.20 |
| chem:c8 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.11 |
| chem:c9 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| chem:c10 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.00 |
| chem:c11 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.00 |
| chem:c12 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | chem:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.88 | FactCheck.org | |
| 2 | chem:c1 | 2 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.500 | -0.44 | unchecked | Grokipedia |
| 3 | chem:c1 | 3 | -1 | 0.95 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.250 | -0.23 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 4 | chem:c1 | 4 | -1 | 0.90 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.245 | 0.125 | -0.06 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 5 | chem:c1 | 5 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.062 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 6 | chem:c1 | 6 | +1 | 0.45 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.031 | +0.01 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 7 | chem:c1 | 7 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 0.016 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 8 | chem:c1 | 8 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 0.008 | -0.00 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 9 | chem:c1 | 9 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.004 | +0.00 | unchecked | Opendemocracy |
| 10 | chem:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.86 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.350 | 1.000 | -0.60 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 11 | chem:c2 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 12 | chem:c3 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.78 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 13 | chem:c4 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 14 | chem:c4 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 15 | chem:c4 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 16 | chem:c4 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 17 | chem:c5 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov | |
| 18 | chem:c5 | 2 | +1 | 0.90 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 0.500 | +0.13 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 19 | chem:c6 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 20 | chem:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | -0.20 | unchecked | Kay Revives Fracas Over U.S. Intelligence on Iraq |
| 21 | chem:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | -0.11 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 22 | chem:c9 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 23 | chem:c10 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.20 | 0.056 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | nsarchive2.gwu.edu |
| 24 | chem:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.024 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 25 | chem:c12 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
gemini-3.5-flash-lite on chem: p 0.000, log-odds -8.18, mass 6.26 (for 0.28 / against 5.16 / mixed 0.39), contested shrink ×0.93, 25 items in 12 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.007, leave-one-backend-out 0.006 · one-sided
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| chem:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 9 | 1.68 | -3.27 |
| chem:c2 | primary_source: unmovic | 4 | 0.91 | -0.63 |
| chem:c3 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.95 | -1.90 |
| chem:c4 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.70 | -1.26 |
| chem:c5 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.70 | -1.26 |
| chem:c6 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.50 | -0.90 |
| chem:c7 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.32 | +0.45 |
| chem:c8 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| chem:c9 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| chem:c10 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| chem:c11 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| chem:c12 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | chem:c1 | 1 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 1.000 | -1.80 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 2 | chem:c1 | 2 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 0.500 | -0.90 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 3 | chem:c1 | 3 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.250 | -0.28 | unchecked | Opendemocracy |
| 4 | chem:c1 | 4 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.125 | -0.17 | FactCheck.org | |
| 5 | chem:c1 | 5 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.630 | 0.062 | -0.06 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 6 | chem:c1 | 6 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.031 | -0.03 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 7 | chem:c1 | 7 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.016 | -0.02 | unchecked | Grokipedia |
| 8 | chem:c1 | 8 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.280 | 0.008 | -0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 9 | chem:c1 | 9 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.004 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 10 | chem:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.50 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.630 | 1.000 | -0.63 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 11 | chem:c2 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 12 | chem:c2 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 13 | chem:c2 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.252 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 14 | chem:c3 | 1 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.40 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 15 | chem:c3 | 2 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.500 | -0.50 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 16 | chem:c4 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 17 | chem:c5 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | Kay Revives Fracas Over U.S. Intelligence on Iraq |
| 18 | chem:c6 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 1.000 | -0.90 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 19 | chem:c7 | 1 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 1.000 | +0.45 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 20 | chem:c7 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.500 | +0.00 | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov | |
| 21 | chem:c8 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | nsarchive2.gwu.edu |
| 22 | chem:c9 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 23 | chem:c10 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 24 | chem:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 25 | chem:c12 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
deepseek-v4.1-flash on chem: p 0.010, log-odds -4.60, mass 5.00 (for 0.28 / against 3.58 / mixed 0.76), contested shrink ×0.84, 25 items in 12 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.068, leave-one-backend-out 0.033 · one-sided
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| chem:c1 | study: iraq survey group | 9 | 1.34 | -2.29 |
| chem:c2 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.95 | -1.71 |
| chem:c3 | primary_source: unmovic | 4 | 0.79 | +0.00 |
| chem:c4 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.70 | -1.12 |
| chem:c5 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.45 |
| chem:c6 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| chem:c7 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| chem:c8 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| chem:c9 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| chem:c10 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| chem:c11 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| chem:c12 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | chem:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.12 | unchecked | Opendemocracy |
| 2 | chem:c1 | 2 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.500 | -0.63 | FactCheck.org | |
| 3 | chem:c1 | 3 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.250 | -0.35 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 4 | chem:c1 | 4 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.125 | -0.12 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 5 | chem:c1 | 5 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.062 | -0.06 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 6 | chem:c1 | 6 | -1 | 0.20 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 0.031 | -0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 7 | chem:c1 | 7 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.016 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 8 | chem:c1 | 8 | +0 | 0.00 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.196 | 0.008 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 9 | chem:c1 | 9 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.100 | 0.004 | -0.00 | unchecked | Grokipedia |
| 10 | chem:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 11 | chem:c2 | 2 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.500 | -0.45 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 12 | chem:c3 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.630 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 13 | chem:c3 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 14 | chem:c3 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 15 | chem:c3 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 16 | chem:c4 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.12 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 17 | chem:c5 | 1 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 1.000 | +0.45 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 18 | chem:c5 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 0.500 | +0.00 | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov | |
| 19 | chem:c6 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.200 | 1.000 | -0.32 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 20 | chem:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.200 | 1.000 | -0.32 | unchecked | Kay Revives Fracas Over U.S. Intelligence on Iraq |
| 21 | chem:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.50 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.20 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 22 | chem:c9 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | nsarchive2.gwu.edu |
| 23 | chem:c10 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 24 | chem:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 25 | chem:c12 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
grok-4.3 on chem: p 0.010, log-odds -4.62, mass 4.36 (for 0.28 / against 3.45 / mixed 0.26), contested shrink ×0.94, 25 items in 12 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.057, leave-one-backend-out 0.026 · one-sided
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| chem:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 9 | 1.14 | -2.04 |
| chem:c2 | primary_source: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.74 | -1.19 |
| chem:c3 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.80 | -0.96 |
| chem:c4 | primary_source: unmovic | 4 | 0.36 | +0.00 |
| chem:c5 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.49 | -0.69 |
| chem:c6 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.39 |
| chem:c7 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| chem:c8 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.13 |
| chem:c9 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| chem:c10 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.00 |
| chem:c11 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.00 |
| chem:c12 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | chem:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | FactCheck.org | |
| 2 | chem:c1 | 2 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.500 | -0.45 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 3 | chem:c1 | 3 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.250 | -0.23 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 4 | chem:c1 | 4 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.300 | 0.125 | -0.07 | unchecked | Grokipedia |
| 5 | chem:c1 | 5 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.280 | 0.062 | -0.03 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 6 | chem:c1 | 6 | -1 | 0.40 | finding ×1.00 | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.280 | 0.031 | -0.01 | unchecked | Opendemocracy |
| 7 | chem:c1 | 7 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.016 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 8 | chem:c1 | 8 | +0 | 0.00 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.70 | 0.20 | 0.098 | 0.008 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 9 | chem:c1 | 9 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.004 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 10 | chem:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 1.000 | -0.80 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 11 | chem:c2 | 2 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.500 | -0.39 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 12 | chem:c3 | 1 | -1 | 0.60 | finding ×1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.800 | 1.000 | -0.96 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 13 | chem:c4 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 14 | chem:c4 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 15 | chem:c4 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 16 | chem:c4 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 17 | chem:c5 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.69 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 18 | chem:c6 | 1 | +1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 1.000 | +0.39 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 19 | chem:c6 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 0.500 | +0.00 | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov | |
| 20 | chem:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.200 | 1.000 | -0.32 | unchecked | Kay Revives Fracas Over U.S. Intelligence on Iraq |
| 21 | chem:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | -0.13 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 22 | chem:c9 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 23 | chem:c10 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | nsarchive2.gwu.edu |
| 24 | chem:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.040 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 25 | chem:c12 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
bio Iraq held biological weapons stockpiles or ran an active biological weapons production program in March 2003
25 documents. One-sided pool for deepseek-v4.1-flash, grok-4.3.
| # | Source | Cluster root | basis | median llr | claude-haiku-4.5 | gpt-5.4-mini | gemini-3.5-flash-lite | deepseek-v4.1-flash | grok-4.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chemical & Engineering News 2014-09-16 Assessing Iraq's Weapons |
study: duelfer report 2004 | finding | -1.26 | -1.26 | -0.93 | -1.40 | -1.19 | -1.26 |
| 2 | armscontrol.org 2025-04-09 Disarming Saddam-A Chronology of Iraq and UN Weapons Inspections From 2002-2003 |
primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | finding | -0.98 | -0.69 | -0.88 | -1.12 | -0.98 | -0.98 |
| 3 | FactCheck.org 2008-02-19 No WMDs in Iraq - FactCheck.org |
primary_source: iraq survey group | finding | -0.70 | -0.06 | -0.84 | -0.17 | -0.70 | -1.26 |
| 4 | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq 2004-10-07 Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
primary_source: iraq survey group | finding | -0.47 | -1.26 | -0.47 | -0.90 | -0.32 | -0.45 |
| 5 | globalsecurity.org 2002-09-24 Biological Weapons Program |
study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | assertion | +0.45 | +0.50 | +0.30 | +0.56 | +0.45 | +0.14 |
| 6 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2005-11-03 Allegations of Iraqi mobile weapons laboratories - Wikipedia |
author_group: cia | mixed | -0.34 | -0.34 | +0.00 | -0.56 | +0.00 | -0.56 |
| 7 | armscontrol.org 2005-03-01 Iraq Weapons Hunt Ends; Other Investigations Continue |
study: duelfer report 2004 | finding | -0.34 | -0.34 | +0.00 | -0.70 | -0.44 | -0.34 |
| 8 | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov 2003-02-05 Secretary of State Addresses the U.N. Security Council |
study: iaea | assertion | +0.30 | +0.30 | +0.30 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.40 |
| 9 | leadingtowar.com 2003-02-16 Leading To War :: a film that chronicles the path to war in Iraq |
author_group: bush administration | finding | -0.29 | -0.29 | -0.12 | -0.48 | -0.21 | -0.34 |
| 10 | NBC News 2005-04-25 CIA’s final report: No WMD found in Iraq |
primary_source: iraq survey group | finding | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.17 | -0.35 | -1.26 | -0.22 |
| 11 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2002-12-06 Iraq and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia |
primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | assertion | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.36 | -0.24 | -0.13 |
| 12 | Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky 2003-09-25 SCHAKOWSKY: BUSH ADMINISTRATIONS MISSTATEMENT OF THE DAY IRAQ AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION |
primary_source: bush state of the union 2003 | assertion | -0.20 | -0.20 | +0.00 | -1.26 | -0.34 | -0.12 |
| 13 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2008-11-17 Iraqi biological weapons program - Wikipedia |
study: duelfer report 2004 | assertion | -0.20 | -0.20 | +0.20 | -0.60 | -0.16 | -0.36 |
| 14 | The Famous Pictures Collection 2013-05-16 Iraqi Mobile Production Facilities |
primary_source: cia | assertion | -0.10 | -0.20 | +0.11 | +0.32 | -0.12 | -0.10 |
| 15 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2006-06-11 WMD conjecture after the 2003 invasion of Iraq - Wikipedia |
primary_source: iraq survey group | finding | -0.08 | -0.45 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| 16 | SIPRI 2023-03-09 Twenty years ago in Iraq, ignoring the expert weapons inspectors proved to be a fatal mistake |
primary_source: iraq survey group | assertion | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -1.80 | -0.10 | -0.01 |
| 17 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2003-10-26 Iraq Survey Group - Wikipedia |
study: duelfer report 2004 | assertion | -0.02 | -0.05 | +0.00 | -0.14 | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| 18 | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov 2005-03-31 Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction |
study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 |
| 19 | CNN.com - Powell: Iraq hiding weapons, aiding terrorists 2003-02-05 Powell: Iraq hiding weapons, aiding terrorists |
primary_source: cnn | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 ⚠ | +0.16 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 20 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu 1997-10-08 Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction |
primary_source: national security directive 54 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 21 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2007-01-10 Iraqi chemical weapons program - Wikipedia |
study: duelfer report 2004 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 22 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2004-07-29 Senate Report on Iraqi WMD Intelligence - Wikipedia |
primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 23 | un.org s-2006-420-English.pdf |
primary_source: unmovic | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 24 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2004-02-03 Powell Proved Deception, But Not Imminent Threat |
primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 25 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2002-10-04 United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission - Wikipedia |
primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
claude-haiku-4.5 on bio: p 0.012, log-odds -4.40, mass 5.02 (for 0.53 / against 3.64 / mixed 0.53), contested shrink ×0.89, 25 items in 17 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.063, leave-one-backend-out 0.014
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bio:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 5 | 1.12 | -2.01 |
| bio:c2 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 4 | 0.99 | -1.65 |
| bio:c3 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.49 | -0.69 |
| bio:c4 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.32 | +0.50 |
| bio:c5 | primary_source: unmovic | 1 | 0.25 | +0.00 |
| bio:c6 | study: iaea | 1 | 0.25 | +0.30 |
| bio:c7 | author_group: cia | 1 | 0.24 | -0.34 |
| bio:c8 | author_group: bush administration | 1 | 0.24 | -0.29 |
| bio:c9 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.20 |
| bio:c10 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| bio:c11 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| bio:c12 | primary_source: bush state of the union 2003 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.20 |
| bio:c13 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.20 |
| bio:c14 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.14 | -0.20 |
| bio:c15 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| bio:c16 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| bio:c17 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | bio:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 2 | bio:c1 | 2 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.500 | -0.45 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 3 | bio:c1 | 3 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.250 | -0.22 | unchecked | NBC News |
| 4 | bio:c1 | 4 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 0.125 | -0.06 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 5 | bio:c1 | 5 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.062 | -0.02 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 6 | bio:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | Chemical & Engineering News |
| 7 | bio:c2 | 2 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.500 | -0.34 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 8 | bio:c2 | 3 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 0.250 | -0.05 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 9 | bio:c2 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 10 | bio:c3 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.69 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 11 | bio:c4 | 1 | +1 | 0.90 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 1.000 | +0.50 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 12 | bio:c4 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 13 | bio:c5 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 14 | bio:c6 | 1 | +1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.30 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 15 | bio:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.245 | 1.000 | -0.34 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 16 | bio:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.60 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.245 | 1.000 | -0.29 | unchecked | leadingtowar.com |
| 17 | bio:c9 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | -0.20 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. | |
| 18 | bio:c10 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | +0.00 | ⚠ polarity | CNN.com - Powell: Iraq hiding weapons, aiding terrorists |
| 19 | bio:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 20 | bio:c12 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | -0.20 | unchecked | Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky |
| 21 | bio:c13 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | -0.20 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 22 | bio:c14 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | -0.20 | unchecked | The Famous Pictures Collection |
| 23 | bio:c15 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu | |
| 24 | bio:c16 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 25 | bio:c17 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
gpt-5.4-mini on bio: p 0.092, log-odds -2.29, mass 3.64 (for 0.96 / against 2.08 / mixed 0.30), contested shrink ×0.91, 25 items in 17 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.213, leave-one-backend-out 0.044
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bio:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 5 | 0.88 | -1.58 |
| bio:c2 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 4 | 0.63 | -0.93 |
| bio:c3 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.49 | -0.88 |
| bio:c4 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.23 | +0.30 |
| bio:c5 | study: iaea | 1 | 0.25 | +0.30 |
| bio:c6 | primary_source: unmovic | 1 | 0.14 | +0.12 |
| bio:c7 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.20 |
| bio:c8 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.14 | +0.16 |
| bio:c9 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.20 |
| bio:c10 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| bio:c11 | author_group: cia | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| bio:c12 | author_group: bush administration | 1 | 0.08 | -0.12 |
| bio:c13 | primary_source: bush state of the union 2003 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| bio:c14 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.08 | +0.11 |
| bio:c15 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| bio:c16 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.00 |
| bio:c17 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | bio:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.86 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.84 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 2 | bio:c1 | 2 | -1 | 0.95 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.500 | -0.47 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 3 | bio:c1 | 3 | -1 | 0.95 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.350 | 0.250 | -0.17 | unchecked | NBC News |
| 4 | bio:c1 | 4 | -1 | 0.95 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.350 | 0.125 | -0.08 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 5 | bio:c1 | 5 | -1 | 0.90 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.062 | -0.02 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 6 | bio:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.95 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.93 | unchecked | Chemical & Engineering News |
| 7 | bio:c2 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 8 | bio:c2 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 9 | bio:c2 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.040 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 10 | bio:c3 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.88 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 11 | bio:c4 | 1 | +1 | 0.76 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | +0.30 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 12 | bio:c4 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 13 | bio:c5 | 1 | +1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.30 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 14 | bio:c6 | 1 | +1 | 0.43 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.12 | unchecked | un.org |
| 15 | bio:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | -0.20 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. | |
| 16 | bio:c8 | 1 | +1 | 0.56 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | +0.16 | CNN.com - Powell: Iraq hiding weapons, aiding terrorists | |
| 17 | bio:c9 | 1 | +1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | +0.20 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 18 | bio:c10 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu | |
| 19 | bio:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.084 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 20 | bio:c12 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.084 | 1.000 | -0.12 | unchecked | leadingtowar.com |
| 21 | bio:c13 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.084 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky |
| 22 | bio:c14 | 1 | +1 | 0.65 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.084 | 1.000 | +0.11 | unchecked | The Famous Pictures Collection |
| 23 | bio:c15 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 24 | bio:c16 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.048 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 25 | bio:c17 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.024 | 1.000 | +0.00 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
gemini-3.5-flash-lite on bio: p 0.000, log-odds -7.64, mass 7.34 (for 0.82 / against 5.33 / mixed 0.77), contested shrink ×0.89, 25 items in 17 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.010, leave-one-backend-out 0.005
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bio:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 5 | 1.64 | -3.29 |
| bio:c2 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 4 | 1.15 | -2.24 |
| bio:c3 | primary_source: bush state of the union 2003 | 1 | 0.70 | -1.26 |
| bio:c4 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.70 | -1.12 |
| bio:c5 | primary_source: unmovic | 1 | 0.63 | +0.00 |
| bio:c6 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.56 |
| bio:c7 | author_group: cia | 1 | 0.35 | -0.56 |
| bio:c8 | author_group: bush administration | 1 | 0.30 | -0.48 |
| bio:c9 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 1 | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| bio:c10 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.36 |
| bio:c11 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.20 | +0.32 |
| bio:c12 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.20 | +0.20 |
| bio:c13 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| bio:c14 | study: iaea | 1 | 0.14 | +0.23 |
| bio:c15 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| bio:c16 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| bio:c17 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | bio:c1 | 1 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 1.000 | -1.80 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 2 | bio:c1 | 2 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 0.500 | -0.90 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 3 | bio:c1 | 3 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.250 | -0.35 | unchecked | NBC News |
| 4 | bio:c1 | 4 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.125 | -0.17 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 5 | bio:c1 | 5 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.062 | -0.06 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 6 | bio:c2 | 1 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.40 | unchecked | Chemical & Engineering News |
| 7 | bio:c2 | 2 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.500 | -0.70 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 8 | bio:c2 | 3 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.350 | 0.250 | -0.14 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 9 | bio:c2 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 10 | bio:c3 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky |
| 11 | bio:c4 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.12 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 12 | bio:c5 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.630 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 13 | bio:c6 | 1 | +1 | 1.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 1.000 | +0.56 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 14 | bio:c6 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 15 | bio:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.350 | 1.000 | -0.56 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 16 | bio:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.300 | 1.000 | -0.48 | unchecked | leadingtowar.com |
| 17 | bio:c9 | 1 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.300 | 1.000 | -0.60 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 18 | bio:c10 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.200 | 1.000 | -0.36 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. | |
| 19 | bio:c11 | 1 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.200 | 1.000 | +0.32 | unchecked | The Famous Pictures Collection |
| 20 | bio:c12 | 1 | +1 | 0.50 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | +0.20 | CNN.com - Powell: Iraq hiding weapons, aiding terrorists | |
| 21 | bio:c13 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu | |
| 22 | bio:c14 | 1 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.23 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 23 | bio:c15 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 24 | bio:c16 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 25 | bio:c17 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
deepseek-v4.1-flash on bio: p 0.007, log-odds -4.92, mass 5.43 (for 0.35 / against 3.89 / mixed 0.60), contested shrink ×0.88, 25 items in 17 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.057, leave-one-backend-out 0.020 · one-sided
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bio:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 5 | 1.30 | -2.40 |
| bio:c2 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 4 | 1.00 | -1.65 |
| bio:c3 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.70 | -0.98 |
| bio:c4 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.48 |
| bio:c5 | author_group: cia | 1 | 0.35 | +0.00 |
| bio:c6 | primary_source: unmovic | 1 | 0.25 | +0.00 |
| bio:c7 | author_group: bush administration | 1 | 0.21 | -0.21 |
| bio:c8 | primary_source: bush state of the union 2003 | 1 | 0.21 | -0.34 |
| bio:c9 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.24 |
| bio:c10 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 1 | 0.16 | -0.16 |
| bio:c11 | study: iaea | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| bio:c12 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.12 | -0.12 |
| bio:c13 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| bio:c14 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| bio:c15 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| bio:c16 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| bio:c17 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | bio:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | NBC News |
| 2 | bio:c1 | 2 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.500 | -0.70 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 3 | bio:c1 | 3 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.250 | -0.32 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 4 | bio:c1 | 4 | -1 | 0.85 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.125 | -0.10 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 5 | bio:c1 | 5 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.200 | 0.062 | -0.02 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 6 | bio:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.85 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.19 | unchecked | Chemical & Engineering News |
| 7 | bio:c2 | 2 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.500 | -0.44 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 8 | bio:c2 | 3 | -1 | 0.20 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.200 | 0.250 | -0.02 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 9 | bio:c2 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.040 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 10 | bio:c3 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -0.98 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 11 | bio:c4 | 1 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 1.000 | +0.45 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 12 | bio:c4 | 2 | +1 | 0.20 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 0.500 | +0.03 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 13 | bio:c5 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.350 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 14 | bio:c6 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 15 | bio:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.50 | finding ×1.00 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.210 | 1.000 | -0.21 | unchecked | leadingtowar.com |
| 16 | bio:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.210 | 1.000 | -0.34 | unchecked | Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky |
| 17 | bio:c9 | 1 | -1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.200 | 1.000 | -0.24 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. | |
| 18 | bio:c10 | 1 | -1 | 0.50 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.160 | 1.000 | -0.16 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 19 | bio:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 20 | bio:c12 | 1 | -1 | 0.50 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.120 | 1.000 | -0.12 | unchecked | The Famous Pictures Collection |
| 21 | bio:c13 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu | |
| 22 | bio:c14 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | CNN.com - Powell: Iraq hiding weapons, aiding terrorists | |
| 23 | bio:c15 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 24 | bio:c16 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 25 | bio:c17 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
grok-4.3 on bio: p 0.006, log-odds -5.13, mass 4.94 (for 0.35 / against 3.78 / mixed 0.43), contested shrink ×0.91, 25 items in 17 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.034, leave-one-backend-out 0.019 · one-sided
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bio:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 5 | 1.12 | -2.02 |
| bio:c2 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 4 | 0.98 | -1.60 |
| bio:c3 | primary_source: george w bush state of the union 2002 | 1 | 0.70 | -0.98 |
| bio:c4 | study: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.14 |
| bio:c5 | author_group: cia | 1 | 0.35 | -0.56 |
| bio:c6 | study: iaea | 1 | 0.25 | +0.40 |
| bio:c7 | author_group: bush administration | 1 | 0.21 | -0.34 |
| bio:c8 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.36 |
| bio:c9 | primary_source: unmovic | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| bio:c10 | primary_source: senate select committee on intelligence 2004 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| bio:c11 | primary_source: bush state of the union 2003 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.12 |
| bio:c12 | primary_source: cia | 1 | 0.08 | -0.10 |
| bio:c13 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1441 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.13 |
| bio:c14 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| bio:c15 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.00 |
| bio:c16 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.00 |
| bio:c17 | primary_source: un security council resolution 1284 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | bio:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 2 | bio:c1 | 2 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.500 | 0.500 | -0.45 | unchecked | CNN.com - Report: No WMD stockpiles in Iraq |
| 3 | bio:c1 | 3 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.250 | -0.22 | unchecked | NBC News |
| 4 | bio:c1 | 4 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.350 | 0.125 | -0.08 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 5 | bio:c1 | 5 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 0.062 | -0.01 | unchecked | SIPRI |
| 6 | bio:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | Chemical & Engineering News |
| 7 | bio:c2 | 2 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.500 | -0.34 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 8 | bio:c2 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 9 | bio:c2 | 4 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.125 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 10 | bio:c3 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -0.98 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 11 | bio:c4 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 12 | bio:c4 | 2 | +1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.500 | +0.14 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 13 | bio:c5 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.350 | 1.000 | -0.56 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 14 | bio:c6 | 1 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.40 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 15 | bio:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.210 | 1.000 | -0.34 | unchecked | leadingtowar.com |
| 16 | bio:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.200 | 1.000 | -0.36 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 17 | bio:c9 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | un.org |
| 18 | bio:c10 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 19 | bio:c11 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.084 | 1.000 | -0.12 | unchecked | Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky |
| 20 | bio:c12 | 1 | -1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.084 | 1.000 | -0.10 | unchecked | The Famous Pictures Collection |
| 21 | bio:c13 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | -0.13 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. | |
| 22 | bio:c14 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 1.000 | +0.00 | CNN.com - Powell: Iraq hiding weapons, aiding terrorists | |
| 23 | bio:c15 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 1.000 | +0.00 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu | |
| 24 | bio:c16 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.048 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 25 | bio:c17 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.040 | 1.000 | +0.00 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
nuke Iraq had reconstituted its nuclear weapons program by March 2003
25 documents. One-sided pool for claude-haiku-4.5, grok-4.3.
| # | Source | Cluster root | basis | median llr | claude-haiku-4.5 | gpt-5.4-mini | gemini-3.5-flash-lite | deepseek-v4.1-flash | grok-4.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | globalsecurity.org 2026-01-01 Iraq Survey Group Final Report |
primary_source: iraq survey group | finding | -1.80 | -1.71 | -1.80 | -1.80 | -1.80 | -1.62 |
| 2 | armscontrol.org 2013-03-05 The Cost of Ignoring UN Inspectors: An Unnecessary War with Iraq |
primary_source: bush administration | finding | -1.26 | -1.26 | -0.66 | -1.26 | -1.12 | -1.26 |
| 3 | armscontrol.org 2025-04-09 Chronology of Bush Administration Claim that Iraq Attempted to Obtain Uranium from Niger (2001-2003) |
primary_source: arms control association | finding | -0.78 | -0.48 | -0.62 | -1.12 | -1.12 | -0.78 |
| 4 | iaea.org 46102096971.pdf |
primary_source: hans blix | finding | -0.69 | -0.69 | -0.39 | -1.01 | -0.69 | -0.34 |
| 5 | armscontrol.org 2005-03-01 Iraq Weapons Hunt Ends; Other Investigations Continue |
study: duelfer report 2004 | finding | -0.69 | -0.27 | -0.31 | -1.26 | -0.69 | -0.78 |
| 6 | FactCheck.org 2008-02-19 No WMDs in Iraq - FactCheck.org |
primary_source: iraq survey group | finding | -0.44 | -0.39 | -0.08 | -0.70 | -0.59 | -0.44 |
| 7 | irp.fas.org 2024-11-01 Declassified Excerpts from the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq |
primary_source: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | assertion | +0.35 | +0.18 | +0.35 | +0.58 | +0.36 | +0.00 |
| 8 | CNN.com - Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation 2003-02-05 Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation |
primary_source: cnn | assertion | +0.35 | -0.27 | +0.35 | +0.65 | +0.43 | -0.10 |
| 9 | irp.fas.org 2003-07-01 Key Judgments: Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction |
primary_source: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | assertion | +0.32 | +0.50 | +0.18 | +0.32 | +0.22 | +0.43 |
| 10 | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series 2025-03-07 Colin Powell: U.N. Speech "Was a Great Intelligence Failure" | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary S |
primary_source: colin powell interview february 2016 | assertion | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.19 | -1.80 | -0.50 | -0.31 |
| 11 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2004-03-25 A Tale of Two Intelligence Estimates |
primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | assertion | -0.16 | +0.00 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| 12 | citizenreviewonline.org 2003-05-02 Text of Colin Powell's Presentation to the United Nations |
primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 13 | globalsecurity.org 2026-01-01 Iraq Survey Group Final Report |
primary_source: iraq survey group | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 14 | CNN.com - Transcript of Blix's U.N. presentation 2003-03-07 Transcript of Blix's U.N. presentation |
primary_source: unmovic | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 15 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2003-10-26 Iraq Survey Group - Wikipedia |
study: duelfer report 2004 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | -0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 16 | UN News 2003-02-05 Powell presents US case to Security Council of Iraq's failure to disarm |
primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 17 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu 1997-10-08 Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction |
primary_source: national security directive 54 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 ⚠ | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 18 | Congressional Research Service 2003-03-13 Iraq: U.N. Inspections for Weapons of Mass Destruction |
primary_source: unmovic | assertion | +0.00 | -0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 19 | UN News 2024-02-15 Stories from the UN Archive: The presentation that launched a war |
primary_source: un security council meeting february 5 2003 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 20 | UN News 2003-03-27 Blix sees no evidence Iraq has used banned weapons |
primary_source: hans blix | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | -0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 21 | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov 2003-02-05 Secretary of State Addresses the U.N. Security Council |
primary_source: us state department 2003 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 22 | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) 2000-01-01 Library |
primary_source: cia | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 23 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2004-02-03 Powell Proved Deception, But Not Imminent Threat |
primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | assertion | +0.00 | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 24 | justice.gov GX2A.pdf |
primary_source: cia | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 25 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 2023-04-15 Colin Powell's presentation to the United Nations Security Council - Wikipedia |
primary_source: us state department 2003 | assertion | +0.00 | +0.00 ⚠ | -0.05 ⚠ | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
claude-haiku-4.5 on nuke: p 0.021, log-odds -3.84, mass 5.38 (for 0.49 / against 3.38 / mixed 1.04), contested shrink ×0.79, 25 items in 15 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.094, leave-one-backend-out 0.087 · one-sided
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nuke:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 3 | 1.21 | -2.10 |
| nuke:c2 | primary_source: bush administration | 1 | 0.70 | -1.26 |
| nuke:c3 | primary_source: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.49 | +0.68 |
| nuke:c4 | primary_source: hans blix | 2 | 0.52 | -0.69 |
| nuke:c5 | primary_source: unmovic | 2 | 0.35 | -0.14 |
| nuke:c6 | primary_source: us state department 2003 | 2 | 0.32 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c7 | primary_source: arms control association | 1 | 0.34 | -0.48 |
| nuke:c8 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.27 | -0.27 |
| nuke:c9 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 3 | 0.20 | -0.02 |
| nuke:c10 | primary_source: colin powell interview february 2016 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.31 |
| nuke:c11 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.20 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c12 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.20 | -0.27 |
| nuke:c13 | primary_source: cia | 2 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c14 | primary_source: un security council meeting february 5 2003 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c15 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | nuke:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.95 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 1.000 | -1.71 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 2 | nuke:c1 | 2 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.500 | -0.39 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 3 | nuke:c1 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 4 | nuke:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 5 | nuke:c3 | 1 | +1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 1.000 | +0.50 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 6 | nuke:c3 | 2 | +1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.500 | +0.18 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 7 | nuke:c4 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.69 | iaea.org | |
| 8 | nuke:c4 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.20 | 0.056 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 9 | nuke:c5 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Blix's U.N. presentation |
| 10 | nuke:c5 | 2 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.500 | -0.14 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 11 | nuke:c6 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 12 | nuke:c6 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 0.500 | +0.00 | ⚠ polarity | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 13 | nuke:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.343 | 1.000 | -0.48 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 14 | nuke:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.27 | armscontrol.org | |
| 15 | nuke:c8 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 16 | nuke:c9 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | citizenreviewonline.org |
| 17 | nuke:c9 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 18 | nuke:c9 | 3 | -1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.250 | -0.02 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 19 | nuke:c10 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.31 | unchecked | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series |
| 20 | nuke:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 21 | nuke:c12 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.27 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation |
| 22 | nuke:c13 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | justice.gov |
| 23 | nuke:c13 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
| 24 | nuke:c14 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 25 | nuke:c15 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu |
gpt-5.4-mini on nuke: p 0.039, log-odds -3.21, mass 3.95 (for 0.87 / against 2.47 / mixed 0.10), contested shrink ×0.97, 25 items in 15 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.155, leave-one-backend-out 0.147
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nuke:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 3 | 1.05 | -1.88 |
| nuke:c2 | primary_source: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.53 |
| nuke:c3 | primary_source: bush administration | 1 | 0.35 | -0.66 |
| nuke:c4 | primary_source: arms control association | 1 | 0.34 | -0.62 |
| nuke:c5 | primary_source: hans blix | 2 | 0.28 | -0.39 |
| nuke:c6 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.24 | -0.31 |
| nuke:c7 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 3 | 0.18 | +0.04 |
| nuke:c8 | primary_source: us state department 2003 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.11 |
| nuke:c9 | primary_source: unmovic | 2 | 0.18 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c10 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.20 | -0.31 |
| nuke:c11 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.20 | +0.35 |
| nuke:c12 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c13 | primary_source: colin powell interview february 2016 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.19 |
| nuke:c14 | primary_source: un security council meeting february 5 2003 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c15 | primary_source: cia | 2 | 0.07 | +0.03 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | nuke:c1 | 1 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 1.000 | -1.80 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 2 | nuke:c1 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 3 | nuke:c1 | 3 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.250 | -0.08 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 4 | nuke:c2 | 1 | +1 | 0.70 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.35 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 5 | nuke:c2 | 2 | +1 | 0.92 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 0.500 | +0.18 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 6 | nuke:c3 | 1 | -1 | 0.95 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.350 | 1.000 | -0.66 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 7 | nuke:c4 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.343 | 1.000 | -0.62 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 8 | nuke:c5 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.280 | 1.000 | -0.39 | iaea.org | |
| 9 | nuke:c5 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 10 | nuke:c6 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.31 | armscontrol.org | |
| 11 | nuke:c6 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 12 | nuke:c7 | 1 | +1 | 0.20 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.04 | unchecked | citizenreviewonline.org |
| 13 | nuke:c7 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 14 | nuke:c7 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.048 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 15 | nuke:c8 | 1 | +1 | 0.55 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.16 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 16 | nuke:c8 | 2 | -1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.500 | -0.05 | ⚠ polarity | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 17 | nuke:c9 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 18 | nuke:c9 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Blix's U.N. presentation |
| 19 | nuke:c10 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.31 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 20 | nuke:c11 | 1 | +1 | 0.90 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | +0.35 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation |
| 21 | nuke:c12 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | ⚠ polarity | nsarchive2.gwu.edu |
| 22 | nuke:c13 | 1 | -1 | 0.85 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | -0.19 | unchecked | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series |
| 23 | nuke:c14 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 24 | nuke:c15 | 1 | +1 | 0.20 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 1.000 | +0.03 | unchecked | justice.gov |
| 25 | nuke:c15 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
gemini-3.5-flash-lite on nuke: p 0.003, log-odds -5.92, mass 8.57 (for 1.67 / against 5.32 / mixed 1.27), contested shrink ×0.85, 25 items in 15 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.020, leave-one-backend-out 0.099
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nuke:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 3 | 1.41 | -2.50 |
| nuke:c2 | primary_source: hans blix | 2 | 0.77 | -1.15 |
| nuke:c3 | primary_source: colin powell interview february 2016 | 1 | 0.90 | -1.80 |
| nuke:c4 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.80 | -1.42 |
| nuke:c5 | primary_source: unmovic | 2 | 0.76 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c6 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 3 | 0.53 | +0.22 |
| nuke:c7 | primary_source: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.54 | +0.90 |
| nuke:c8 | primary_source: bush administration | 1 | 0.70 | -1.26 |
| nuke:c9 | primary_source: arms control association | 1 | 0.70 | -1.12 |
| nuke:c10 | primary_source: us state department 2003 | 2 | 0.43 | +0.47 |
| nuke:c11 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.36 | +0.65 |
| nuke:c12 | primary_source: un security council meeting february 5 2003 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.31 |
| nuke:c13 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.20 | -0.31 |
| nuke:c14 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c15 | primary_source: cia | 2 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | nuke:c1 | 1 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 1.000 | -1.80 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 2 | nuke:c1 | 2 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.500 | -0.70 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 3 | nuke:c1 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.630 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 4 | nuke:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.630 | 1.000 | -1.01 | iaea.org | |
| 5 | nuke:c2 | 2 | -1 | 0.50 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.280 | 0.500 | -0.14 | unchecked | UN News |
| 6 | nuke:c3 | 1 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 1.000 | -1.80 | unchecked | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series |
| 7 | nuke:c4 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | armscontrol.org | |
| 8 | nuke:c4 | 2 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.200 | 0.500 | -0.16 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 9 | nuke:c5 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | mixed ×0.70 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.630 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Blix's U.N. presentation |
| 10 | nuke:c5 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 11 | nuke:c6 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | citizenreviewonline.org |
| 12 | nuke:c6 | 2 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.280 | 0.500 | +0.22 | unchecked | UN News |
| 13 | nuke:c6 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 14 | nuke:c7 | 1 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 1.000 | +0.58 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 15 | nuke:c7 | 2 | +1 | 0.90 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 0.500 | +0.32 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 16 | nuke:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 17 | nuke:c9 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.12 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 18 | nuke:c10 | 1 | +1 | 0.50 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 1.000 | +0.36 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 19 | nuke:c10 | 2 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.140 | 0.500 | +0.11 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. | |
| 20 | nuke:c11 | 1 | +1 | 0.90 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 1.000 | +0.65 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation |
| 21 | nuke:c12 | 1 | +1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | +0.31 | unchecked | UN News |
| 22 | nuke:c13 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.31 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 23 | nuke:c14 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu | |
| 24 | nuke:c15 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | justice.gov |
| 25 | nuke:c15 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
deepseek-v4.1-flash on nuke: p 0.009, log-odds -4.65, mass 6.69 (for 0.90 / against 4.10 / mixed 0.97), contested shrink ×0.84, 25 items in 15 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.062, leave-one-backend-out 0.099
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nuke:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 3 | 1.34 | -2.40 |
| nuke:c2 | primary_source: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.54 | +0.58 |
| nuke:c3 | primary_source: unmovic | 2 | 0.67 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c4 | primary_source: bush administration | 1 | 0.70 | -1.12 |
| nuke:c5 | primary_source: arms control association | 1 | 0.70 | -1.12 |
| nuke:c6 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.53 | -0.69 |
| nuke:c7 | primary_source: hans blix | 2 | 0.52 | -0.69 |
| nuke:c8 | primary_source: colin powell interview february 2016 | 1 | 0.36 | -0.50 |
| nuke:c9 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.36 | +0.43 |
| nuke:c10 | primary_source: us state department 2003 | 2 | 0.29 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c11 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 3 | 0.20 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c12 | primary_source: cia | 2 | 0.14 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c13 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c14 | primary_source: un security council meeting february 5 2003 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c15 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.11 | -0.06 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | nuke:c1 | 1 | -1 | 1.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 1.000 | -1.80 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 2 | nuke:c1 | 2 | -1 | 0.85 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 0.500 | -0.59 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 3 | nuke:c1 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 4 | nuke:c2 | 1 | +1 | 0.50 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 1.000 | +0.36 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 5 | nuke:c2 | 2 | +1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 0.500 | +0.22 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 6 | nuke:c3 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.630 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 7 | nuke:c3 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Blix's U.N. presentation |
| 8 | nuke:c4 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.12 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 9 | nuke:c5 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.12 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 10 | nuke:c6 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.69 | armscontrol.org | |
| 11 | nuke:c6 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 12 | nuke:c7 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.69 | iaea.org | |
| 13 | nuke:c7 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.20 | 0.056 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 14 | nuke:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.70 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.360 | 1.000 | -0.50 | unchecked | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series |
| 15 | nuke:c9 | 1 | +1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 1.000 | +0.43 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation |
| 16 | nuke:c10 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 17 | nuke:c10 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.500 | +0.00 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. | |
| 18 | nuke:c11 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | citizenreviewonline.org |
| 19 | nuke:c11 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 20 | nuke:c11 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 21 | nuke:c12 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.144 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | justice.gov |
| 22 | nuke:c12 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
| 23 | nuke:c13 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu | |
| 24 | nuke:c14 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 25 | nuke:c15 | 1 | -1 | 0.25 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | -0.06 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
grok-4.3 on nuke: p 0.010, log-odds -4.61, mass 5.14 (for 0.36 / against 3.65 / mixed 0.69), contested shrink ×0.85, 25 items in 15 clusters, leave-one-cluster-out spread 0.051, leave-one-backend-out 0.090 · one-sided
Clusters
| cluster | root | members | mass | net llr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nuke:c1 | primary_source: iraq survey group | 3 | 1.21 | -2.06 |
| nuke:c2 | primary_source: bush administration | 1 | 0.70 | -1.26 |
| nuke:c3 | primary_source: national intelligence estimate october 2002 | 2 | 0.49 | +0.43 |
| nuke:c4 | study: duelfer report 2004 | 2 | 0.51 | -0.78 |
| nuke:c5 | primary_source: arms control association | 1 | 0.49 | -0.78 |
| nuke:c6 | primary_source: us state department 2003 | 2 | 0.29 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c7 | primary_source: unmovic | 2 | 0.29 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c8 | primary_source: hans blix | 2 | 0.28 | -0.34 |
| nuke:c9 | primary_source: colin powell un presentation 2003 | 3 | 0.16 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c10 | primary_source: colin powell interview february 2016 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.31 |
| nuke:c11 | primary_source: carnegie endowment for international peace | 1 | 0.20 | -0.16 |
| nuke:c12 | primary_source: un security council meeting february 5 2003 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c13 | primary_source: cnn | 1 | 0.08 | -0.10 |
| nuke:c14 | primary_source: national security directive 54 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.00 |
| nuke:c15 | primary_source: cia | 2 | 0.07 | -0.04 |
Items (cluster order, strongest first)
| # | cluster | rank | dir | str | basis | quality | direct | weight | indep | llr | flag | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | nuke:c1 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.900 | 1.000 | -1.62 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 2 | nuke:c1 | 2 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 0.500 | -0.44 | unchecked | FactCheck.org |
| 3 | nuke:c1 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | globalsecurity.org |
| 4 | nuke:c2 | 1 | -1 | 0.90 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.700 | 1.000 | -1.26 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 5 | nuke:c3 | 1 | +1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.360 | 1.000 | +0.43 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 6 | nuke:c3 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | irp.fas.org |
| 7 | nuke:c4 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.78 | armscontrol.org | |
| 8 | nuke:c4 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.040 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. |
| 9 | nuke:c5 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.78 | unchecked | armscontrol.org |
| 10 | nuke:c6 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov |
| 11 | nuke:c6 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.500 | +0.00 | Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. | |
| 12 | nuke:c7 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.252 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | Congressional Research Service |
| 13 | nuke:c7 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Blix's U.N. presentation |
| 14 | nuke:c8 | 1 | -1 | 0.60 | finding ×1.00 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.280 | 1.000 | -0.34 | iaea.org | |
| 15 | nuke:c8 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 16 | nuke:c9 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | citizenreviewonline.org |
| 17 | nuke:c9 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.080 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 18 | nuke:c9 | 3 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.024 | 0.250 | +0.00 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 19 | nuke:c10 | 1 | -1 | 0.80 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.31 | unchecked | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series |
| 20 | nuke:c11 | 1 | -1 | 0.40 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.16 | unchecked | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 21 | nuke:c12 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.112 | 1.000 | +0.00 | unchecked | UN News |
| 22 | nuke:c13 | 1 | -1 | 0.60 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.084 | 1.000 | -0.10 | unchecked | CNN.com - Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation |
| 23 | nuke:c14 | 1 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 1.000 | +0.00 | nsarchive2.gwu.edu | |
| 24 | nuke:c15 | 1 | -1 | 0.30 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.072 | 1.000 | -0.04 | unchecked | justice.gov |
| 25 | nuke:c15 | 2 | +0 | 0.00 | assertion ×0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.500 | +0.00 | unchecked | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov) |
Retrieval and roots
Search backend google+ddg; queries by deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813 (queries_v1); 146 unique URLs found; items by backend ddg+google 13, google 19, ddg 23. Fetch failures: too little text 21, HTTP 403 10, HTTP 406 2, body too large 1, HTTP 400 2, ReadTimeout 3, ConnectError 2.
chem: 70 hits, 58 candidates, 47 fetched, 25 in pool.
for: “Iraq chemical weapons stockpiles found 2003 ISG report”; “declassified intelligence Iraq WMD stockpiles March 2003”
against: “Iraq Survey Group final report no WMD stockpiles”; “UNMOVIC inspections Iraq chemical weapons 2002 2003 findings”
bio: 74 hits, 64 candidates, 50 fetched, 25 in pool.
for: “Iraq biological weapons stockpiles intelligence assessments March 2003”; “Iraq mobile biological weapons laboratories evidence Powell UN 2003”
against: “Iraq Survey Group final report no biological weapons stockpiles”; “UNMOVIC inspections Iraq 2003 found no biological weapons production”
nuke: 66 hits, 65 candidates, 49 fetched, 25 in pool.
for: “Colin Powell UN speech Iraq nuclear weapons program evidence”; “CIA white paper Iraq reconstituted nuclear program October 2002”
against: “IAEA Hans Blix report March 2003 Iraq nuclear no evidence”; “Iraq Survey Group final report nuclear program 2004”
Roots by deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813 (roots_v1, aliases merged by roots_canon_v1): 84 distinct root ids, 15 alias groups.
Alias groups
- charles duelfel = charles duelfers
- colin powell un presentation 2003 = colin powell un presentation february 2003 = colin powell un security council presentation february 2003 = powell presentation february 2003 = powell un security council 2003 = powell un speech 2003
- cia = cia announcement january 2004 = cia paper april 3 2003 = cia white paper iraqs weapons of mass destruction
- iraq survey group = iraq survey group final report = iraq survey group interim report 2003
- un security council = united nations security council
- un security council resolution 1441 = united nations security council resolution 1441
- un security council resolution 687 = united nations security council resolution 687
- unmovic = unmovic 12th quarterly report = unmovic march 2003 report
- us department of state february 2003 = us state department 2003
- us intelligence community = intelligence community
- curveball = iraqi defector curveball
- david kay = david kay new york times interview 2004 = david kay senate testimony 2004 = david kay statements 2004
- senate armed services committee 2004 = senate armed services committee hearing 2004
- united nations = un news
- bush administration = bush administration statements
Parameter snapshot
The dials this dataset was scored with, custom. Definitions on the rubric page.
All dials
prior | 0.5 |
scale | 2.0 |
quality_exp | 1.0 |
directness_exp | 1.0 |
independence_discount | 0.5 |
basis_weights | [1.0, 0.7, 0.4] |
contested_pull | 1.0 |
mixed_directness_min | 0.5 |
side_mass_min | 0.5 |
cluster_roots | primary |
mass_min | 1.0 |
verdict_thresholds | [0.15, 0.35, 0.65, 0.85] |
and_leak | 0.0 |
or_leak | 0.0 |
max_pool_size | 25 |
polarity_sample | 0.2 |
queries_per_side | 2 |
results_per_query | 10 |
excerpt_chars | 2000 |
strictness | 0.5 |
What ran
- Models:
anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5,openai/gpt-5.4-mini,google/gemini-3.5-flash-lite,deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash,x-ai/grok-4.3 - Schema 1.5.0, rubric 1.2.0, parameters custom, git unknown
- Topic phrase shown to the blind quality prompt: “Iraq's weapons programmes and stockpiles, 2002-2004”
- Live spend on this run: $0.01. Judgments are cached by (model, prompt version, content), so a re-run with the same inputs makes zero calls.
- The dataset is the source of every number on this page.